Daily Market Analysis (01.05)

Summary:

1. The rebates have been fully distributed. Feel free to leave a message if there are any issues.

2. Tips for selecting counterfeit coins.

3. Where is the bottom under the monthly level of US stocks? There are three possibilities. However, even in the worst-case scenario, if the Nasdaq drops below 15500, one should start building positions and dollar-cost averaging. The last long bull market in US stocks lasted 20 years from 1980 to 2000. According to the Kuznets cycle, the current fast upward trend that started in 2009 may only have one bull market left, which we should cherish.

4. The current 4-hour rebound of Bitcoin is about to end. On Monday, it may make a move upwards to find a top between 99000-100000, but for two reasons, it may also not make this move and go directly down.

5. Regardless of whether Bitcoin makes a move or not, those holding long positions should close them on Monday.

6. Even if there is a season for counterfeit coins, it cannot be in January; long-term short positions require patience.

7. Operations in Ethereum will be more complex due to the involvement of whether the exchange rate will catch up, while SOL is relatively easier to operate.

Operations:

1. For $BTC , enter at 98500 for the initial position (30%), and add at 99500 (70%). The purpose of the initial position is to prevent it from not making a move on Monday. For short positions, take profit 1/3 at the weekly EMA30, take profit 1/3 at the daily MA250 and push the stop loss down to 88000, and take all profits at the weekly EMA60 to exit.

2. For $ETH , short at 3650 with a 50-point stop, and re-establish short positions at 3820 if it breaks. Target 3120/2820 to exit in two batches. Due to the impact of the Prague upgrade, there are opportunities to go long on the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate, but there is a certain probability that this rate will have to retest 0.031 to build a bottom and wash out before a surge to around 0.05. If that's the case, Ethereum will return to around 2820. It is worth mentioning that since the Prague upgrade is a certain event and has clearly begun to be speculated upon, this will likely turn from favorable news to unfavorable. In Q2 of this year, the main short cryptocurrency will be Ethereum.

3. For $SOL , short around 219, exit in two batches at 166/144; if you can't get in, then forget it.