What risks exist beyond the benefits brought to the cryptocurrency space by Trump's administration?
First, fiscal deficit and debt risk. Although Trump's policies favor the stock market, they may lead to an increase in the fiscal deficit. The expansion of the fiscal deficit results in a significant rise in the issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds, which may trigger market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading investors to sell U.S. Treasuries.
Second, trade war risk. Although the trade war is not a direct result of Trump's policies, countermeasures from Eastern countries may trigger the risk of a trade war. The performance of the U.S. stock market in 2019 was also somewhat affected by the trade war, showing certain twists and turns.
Third, the risk of recurring inflation (long-term risk). If inflation recurs, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again, increasing the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession.
The probabilities of the first two risks occurring are relatively high, but they are mainly short-term risks and have a relatively small impact on the market. The probability of the last risk occurring is lower, but once it does, its impact on the market will be enormous. In light of this trend, the market is likely to speculate on it.