Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start its first annual rate cut in March 2025, stop balance sheet reduction in the second quarter. Barclays expects the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in June 2025, while Morgan Stanley expects two rate cuts in 2025. Four forecasts suggest that inflation caused by tariffs may present a normal dilemma for the Federal Reserve, with expectations of policy tightening or the dollar showing high-level volatility.