According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January 2024 is 88.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. This means that the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance are quite strong, which brings more stability to the financial market, especially the cryptocurrency market. In the past, when the Fed changed its interest rate policy, the market often experienced violent fluctuations. This time, the Fed kept the current interest rate unchanged, especially in early 2024, providing players with a longer period of policy transparency and expected stability.
Why is the market so optimistic? First, the U.S. economy showed some signs of growth at the end of 2023. Although inflation still exists, the momentum of economic growth is strong, which makes the Fed not in a hurry to further raise or cut interest rates. Secondly, the market has accumulated sufficient confidence in the Fed's policy, believing that the current interest rate is close to "normalization", and adjusting the interest rate too quickly may bring more uncertainty.
Looking further, the monetary policy expectations for March 2024 also present different scenarios. According to market forecasts, by March, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 47.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is close to 47.9%, close to a flat state, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.2%. This shows that the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. For players, interest rate cuts are usually a driving factor for rising asset prices, especially in the field of cryptocurrency. Rate cuts mean lower financing costs and increased market liquidity, which may in turn boost demand for digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
January 3, 2024 marks the 16th anniversary of the creation of the Bitcoin Genesis Block. Since the founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, successfully mined the creation block of Bitcoin on the afternoon of January 3, 2009, Bitcoin has gone through a great journey from being inconspicuous to being accepted worldwide. Currently, the total block height of Bitcoin has reached 877,572. As a symbol of blockchain technology, Bitcoin is not only a digital currency, it also represents the concept and development direction of decentralized finance.
At this important historical juncture, the market is full of expectations for the future of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has experienced a lot of fluctuations, as the world's largest digital asset by market value, Bitcoin is still one of the preferred assets for mainstream players. In recent years, the number of institutional players entering the Bitcoin market has gradually increased, including large companies such as MicroStrategy and Tesla, which have included Bitcoin in their asset allocation, making Bitcoin not only a currency, but also an important investment tool in the global financial market.
Another market trend worth noting is an interesting guessing game on the prediction market. According to data from Polymarket, the current probability of the guessing pool on "whether new countries will buy Bitcoin in 2025" is 75%. This means that the market's expectations for more countries to include Bitcoin as a legal reserve asset are getting higher and higher.
This trend is not groundless. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele took the lead in laying the foundation for Bitcoin to become a legal reserve asset for national debt. To date, El Salvador has held 6,006.17 Bitcoins, worth approximately $579 million. As Bitcoin’s global acceptance continues to increase, more and more countries may follow El Salvador’s footsteps and use Bitcoin as part of their national reserve assets, further driving the growth of the Bitcoin market.
According to Bitwise's forecast, by 2025, the price of Ethereum may reach $7,000, while SOL (Solana) may exceed $750. As an important part of blockchain technology, the future development prospects of Ethereum are undoubtedly eye-catching. Ethereum not only dominates the field of smart contracts, but its continuous advancement of the "Ethereum 2.0" upgrade has further strengthened its market competitiveness. As a high-performance public chain, Solana (SOL) has a high-speed transaction processing capability and low transaction costs, which has led to an increasing number of application scenarios in the fields of DeFi and NFT, and also provided strong support for its price growth.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 23,100 coins yesterday, worth $77.5 million
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 2,620 coins yesterday, worth $248 million
BTC: Bitcoin closed with a "small positive line" yesterday, showing that the market has certain support at the current position. From a technical perspective, the 60-day moving average provides strong support, and there is no obvious sign of a break in the short term. However, currently suppressed by the 20-day moving average and the 30-day moving average, the rebound seems to be more difficult, forming a short-term volatile trend.
Judging from the trading volume, yesterday's volume was relatively stable and did not increase significantly, indicating that market sentiment is still relatively cautious. The MACD indicator is at the zero axis, and the red column has shortened significantly, suggesting that the power of shorts is gradually weakening. The RSI indicator is currently around 51, indicating that the market is in a neutral-to-strong state, while the CCI indicator has rebounded to 24, indicating that bullish sentiment has recovered in the short term.
Overall, the market is in a stage of shock accumulation, so be patient. If it can effectively break through the 20-day and 30-day moving averages, it is expected that the market will test above 99,900 in the future; on the contrary, if it falls below the 60-day moving average support, it may trigger a further correction to around 91,000. I think it may choose to rebound upward first and then fall back in the future.
ETH: Ethereum closed with a "small positive line" yesterday and is now at the 5-day moving average. Currently, it is suppressed by the 20-day moving average, and the trend is relatively bumpy. There is a need for further rebound in the short term.
Altcoins: In the current market, although the funds of altcoins have recovered somewhat, the overall sustainability is not strong, and there are not many opportunities to benefit. The current market situation is difficult to stimulate the speculation of funds, so everyone still needs to be patient. The real "Altcoin Season" may take some time to come.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed) #币安全球用户突破2.5亿