The BTC price has entered a stable downtrend on the daily timeframe. Its targets:

- $90,905,

- $87,021,

- $83,136.

How serious is this problem for the bulls?

A stable uptrend on the daily #BTC according to our indicator started on September 18 at a price of $61,759. It ended on December 30 at a price of $92,792, providing a growth of +50%. The previous stable downtrend was short - from September 6 to 17, and did not reach any of the basic targets ($51,483 and $48,785). Is there a chance to break it now?

To break the new downtrend without reaching its targets (or with partial fulfillment), the price now needs to break the descending trend line from December 17. While the price is below - fulfilling part or even all targets is a priority.

On December 30, the #BTC price showed a 'cut' with its test on December 17. The bounce mentioned in the last review was unsuccessful, the breakout failed. The set high was $95,024. By the way, this bounce clearly closed the gap on CME, $94,865-$95,225.




Although this growth was completely absorbed by the correction, the reversal signal on the 12-hour timeframe is still valid.

After the closure of the third reversal candle, the low is set at $91,530. It is important for the bulls not to rewrite it. In favor of this:

- the price came to test the global trend line from the highs of the previous cycle (indicated by a dotted line, currently at $91,592),

- on the two-day timeframe - a label of potential loyalty (the first of three possible).

If the low of $91,530 is rewritten - there is a high probability that the reversal will be delayed and the price will go to fulfill the basic and additional targets of stable downtrends that are on the 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily timeframes in the coming days. If the downtrend persists and the low of $91,530 is updated - a decline can be expected until January 2-4. And the bulls will need to wait for a reversal structure already on the daily timeframe.

An interesting point - the similarity of the situations in autumn 2023-winter 2024 and today. A year ago, a stable uptrend on the daily for BTC lasted from September 19 to January 21. A stable downtrend lasted from January 22 to February 6.

We applied the fractal of this period to the current chart, adjusting for scale.

The situation from September to December looks very similar. And if we are to wait for a fulfillment that is exactly one-to-one, then:

- the low around $86,000-$87,000 in the first days of January (with a test of the ascending trend line support from October 10),

- new ATH around the 20th of January,

- acceleration of growth from the end of January,

- the final target of the impulse is around $160,000 by mid-February, and afterwards - a new consolidation.

The timelines are very conditional, but the fractal itself looks interesting. Let's see how it plays out.

Remember that a reversal upwards of the BTC price Volatility Index is expected on January 1-3.