Today is the last day of 2024, and I will not update the market for now. I’ll talk about it again tomorrow, on New Year’s Day, after the monthly, quarterly, and yearly lines are closed. Today, I'll provide a slightly more objective analysis of the recently popular new coin—BIO. I’m sure everyone is most curious about its opening price and what a reasonable short-term expected price would be, right? Here, we will analyze it neutrally from several aspects!
1. First, based on Binance's past mining return rates using BNB, the normal yield range is around 1%. For example, when staking officially on December 24, the price of BNB was around $700. If 100 BNB were staked, that would be $70,000! Normally, after ten days, the estimated opening value of the BIO earned would be around $700. According to the data from the past 7 days, 100 BNB has mined about 45 BIO per day, totaling around 450 BIO in ten days. Therefore, the opening price is approximately 700/450, which is about $1.5 each, aligning with past mining data!
2. From the preliminary distribution of BIO tokens, the total supply is around 3.3 billion tokens, with an initial circulation of about 1.3 billion tokens. Following the first estimate, 1.3 billion tokens would give a valuation of $2 billion. For a new coin, starting with a $2 billion valuation is quite frightening; even the once four kings (ARB) opened at only about $1.5 billion! So, an opening price of $1.5 seems a bit inflated and unreasonable unless the capital behind BIO (CZ + Vitalik Buterin’s joint support) does not require a cost and continues to raise the price. But personally, I think the entity behind it is not that benevolent, and they won’t just come in as philanthropists. Therefore, based on this, in my foolish opinion, if it really opens at $1.5, just watch the show and don’t rush blindly; be cautious of getting stuck for a month or two!
3. From the price intercepted by a certain entity recently, it currently stabilizes around $0.9. Calculating this gives approximately $1.17 billion, which seems reasonable. The premise is that the entity behind BIO needs to be strong enough and have a broad vision, coupled with enough market enthusiasm (as a leading stock in the biotechnology sector). If retail investors are willing to follow, then it’s not impossible for Binance to open at the price intercepted on the last day. The previous UAUal serves as a case where Binance also opened at the intercepted price from that entity, after which it experienced some volatility before starting a decline, only to rise again after some time! Therefore, based on this point, the first estimate must be discounted, and the mining yield from staking BNB would be around 0.06%. If on the 24th, one temporarily used USDT to exchange for FDUSD for mining, the transaction fees might not even be covered, unless one holds FDUSD long-term to avoid losses! This is also why I do not recommend using FDUSD to mine new coins on Binance, as it often results in wasted efforts, akin to pouring water into a basket, leading to losses. Additionally, the intercepted price must be derived from a professional research and analysis team behind that entity, so there will not be much deviation. It’s just a matter of whether Binance continues to raise the price or drops it! This is a gamble, but we generally do not recommend betting on new coins (like pulling teeth from a tiger’s mouth). Therefore, in the past few days, when discussing BIO, I suggested selling the mined tokens immediately instead of buying any coins, and later, once the K-line shows potential, consider long-term value and then plan the investment!
In summary, with the joint support of CZ and Vitalik Buterin, BIO, as a leading stock in the biotechnology sector, certainly has enough hype; it just depends on how the cards are played. Will they choose to open high ($1.5) to give BNB stakers a 'reasonable' return and then immediately drop the price? Or will they choose to open at a moderate price (the intercepted price from a certain entity, currently around $0.9) and then continue to raise it, or continue to drop it? Regardless, in my foolish opinion, if you have BIO that you mined for free, sell it immediately at a price close to the intercepted price, don’t hesitate. Whether it rises later or not, don’t regret it; it won’t last long before it drops again. Then, keep an eye on its K-line, watch for a small bottom to form, and based on the overall market trend, decide whether to engage with it!
The above is purely my neutral and foolish personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Original content is not easy to produce, so please refrain from negative comments and support is appreciated.
