Directory:
1. Data on large token unlocks this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on weekly popular coin fluctuations/fund flows;
3. Inflows and outflows of the spot ETF;
4. Analysis of on-exchange BTC balance;
5. Interpretation of funding rates for contracts;
1. Data on large token unlocks this week;
Tokens such as SUI, OP, and ZETA will see large unlocks this week, among which:
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 2.19% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 270 million USD;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on December 31, accounting for 2.32% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 58.6 million USD;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 53.89 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 9.35% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 32 million USD;
Beldex (BDX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8 AM on December 30, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 26.1 million USD;
Sleepless AI (AI) will unlock approximately 23.21 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 17.85% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 14.6 million USD;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 1.17% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 12.8 million USD;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on January 1, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 12.1 million USD.
This week, pay attention to these tokens due to the negative effects of unlocking, avoid spot trading, and seek shorting opportunities in contracts. Among them, ZETA and SUI have relatively large unlocking proportions and scales, so keep a close eye on them.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on weekly popular coin fluctuations/fund flows.
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, in the crypto market segmented by concepts, net inflows of funds were largely concentrated in several major areas, including the Arbitrum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Binance Smart Contract, and AI. Additionally, several coins have experienced significant rotational increases over the past week. The top 500 by market cap include tokens such as PHA, AGLD, NCT, AIXBT, POND, and VIRTUAL, which have seen relatively high gains.
3. Inflows and outflows of the spot ETF.
CoinAnk data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has been live for 50 weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings increasing from 2621 in the first week to 552555, completely absorbing the selling pressure from Grayscale's GBTC, which saw its Bitcoin holdings drop from 619200 in the first week to 206860.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was previously the main avenue for investors entering the Bitcoin market, having accumulated a large position before the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, with an initial holding of 619200 BTC. After transforming into a spot ETF, it directly inherits the substantial asset base. GBTC's management fee rate (1.5%) is higher than that of other competitors, leading investors to choose to redeem GBTC shares and turn to other ETFs after the launch of the spot ETF, resulting in a counterflow phenomenon between BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC holdings.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF purchased 511,314 BTC this year, with a total on-chain holding of about 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, and the on-chain value reached about 106.8 billion USD. Meanwhile, the net inflow of the 2024 gold ETF was 454 million USD, compared to a net inflow of 36.8 billion USD for the Bitcoin ETF, which is 81 times that of the gold ETF.
We believe that the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has had a significant impact on the market. The increase in BlackRock's IBIT holdings not only demonstrates the immense attractiveness of the ETF to the market but also reflects a shift in investors' channels for Bitcoin investment. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF accounts for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, highlighting the important role of the ETF in the Bitcoin market. The net inflow for Bitcoin ETF is 81 times that of gold ETF, emphasizing Bitcoin’s appeal and growth potential as an emerging asset class. Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping the investment landscape, providing investors with more convenient investment channels while significantly boosting market demand.
4. The on-exchange BTC balance initially rose and then decreased.
CoinAnk data shows that in the past 24 hours, 5143.46 BTC have flowed out of exchange wallets, 1656.99 BTC in the past 7 days, and 68430.63 BTC in the past 30 days. The total balance of exchange wallets is currently 2,241,041.19 BTC. Recent changes in BTC balance overall have seen an initial rise followed by a decrease.
These data indicate that investors are more inclined to move Bitcoin to personal wallets, reducing their holdings on exchanges to lower potential security risks and increase control over their funds. The recent overall change in BTC balance has seen an initial rise followed by a decrease, which may be related to the market's dual expectations of short-term price volatility and long-term value storage for Bitcoin. This trend may suggest an increased confidence in holding Bitcoin, while also potentially impacting market liquidity and price stability.
5. Interpretation of BTC contract funding rates.
According to CoinAnk contract data, after three and a half months, the funding rate has turned negative, possibly reflecting a significant change in market sentiment. The funding rate is an indicator of the demand for Bitcoin futures contracts among market participants; when the rate is negative, it indicates that there may be excessive selling or shorting pressure, requiring bullish holders to pay fees to bearish holders.
This shift may be related to the market's short-term bearish expectations for Bitcoin prices, or it may indicate that holders with bullish positions are decreasing while holders with bearish positions are increasing. Additionally, this could be a signal of market adjustment, as investors may be reassessing their holding strategies. Given the increased market volatility, this change in funding rates is worth our close attention, as it may indicate a shift in market trends or impending price fluctuations.