Bitcoin is currently experiencing a continuous bearish trend. After hitting a historical high of $108,000 on December 17, it began a correction, dropping to a low of $92,000, with a maximum drawdown of 15%. Currently, Bitcoin has formed a new accumulation zone at $92,000~$100,000. Especially around the price levels of $93,000 and $97,000, there has been significant trading activity, indicating that there is still capital willing to enter and buy at this price.
Label 1: $92,000~$100,000 This is currently the strongest support range, with a total accumulation of 2.65 million BTC, accounting for 13.4% of the total circulation. Label 2: $87,000-$91,000 Below the 'strongest support range' lies a 'buffer zone.' This means that if the 'strongest support range' is breached, BTC will seek new support within this zone. Because this area is not far from the upper dense chip area, the temporarily trapped 2.65 million coins will not create panic selling pressure; instead, it will attract more capital to buy in here. Label 3: $76,000-$86,000 This is a relatively rare 'fault zone.' Historically, there has never been a permanently maintained fault zone, which means that the 'fault' will eventually be filled. If we try to fill the fault now, it will inevitably raise doubts in the market about whether the 'bull market is still on,' creating panic. This is also the worst-case scenario. I personally believe the current probabilities of the above three situations are 1>2>3; Many fans ask when Bitcoin is expected to reverse this bearish trend? According to historical patterns, from December 2020 to January, there was a one-month consolidation, and it has now been adjusting for 13 days. If it consolidates for another half month, it should be about done. The current market situation depends on Bitcoin. We are waiting for Bitcoin to complete its adjustment, after which altcoins will take off. Bitcoin generally peaks 5-6 months in advance, as there is a large amount of capital in circulation, and distribution is a long process. It is clear that we have already reached this point! BTC's market share will continue to decline from now, while ETH will experience explosive growth and will quickly reach the $6,000 position! At the same time, altcoins are beginning a violent season of speculation, which is a true value trap for retail investors! Make sure to hold your positions well and hang in there.
Currently, many altcoins look almost ready based on their K-line structure, but the current correction rhythm of Bitcoin is slower than that of altcoins. We need to wait for Bitcoin to complete its full correction process and structure, allowing for the overall market risk to be released before altcoins can truly rally. Here are some altcoins to consider buying during this correction: 1) AI agent sector, such as secondary market PHA, ATA; 2) Coins held by Grayscale and BlackRock: ZEN, ONDO, etc.; 3) Trump-themed coins: ETH, COW, AAVE; 4) Meme coins heavily held by market makers: GOAT, MOODENG, PNUT. For reference only, trade at your own risk. Personally, I would prioritize PHA, ZEN, COW. That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to create a free communication group. If you really can't navigate the crypto space on your own, don't force yourself; come find me for guidance, understand the latest information, layout, embrace the bull market, and improve your win rate while saying goodbye to being trapped at high positions.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a continuous bearish trend. After hitting a historical high of $108,000 on December 17, it began a correction, dropping to a low of $92,000, with a maximum drawdown of 15%. Currently, Bitcoin has formed a new accumulation zone at $92,000~$100,000. Especially around the price levels of $93,000 and $97,000, there has been significant trading activity, indicating that there is still capital willing to enter and buy at this price.
The following chart shows the latest URPD data as of 2024.12.29. I have marked 1/2/3 on the chart, corresponding to:
Label 1: $92,000~$100,000
This is currently the strongest support range, with a total accumulation of 2.65 million BTC, accounting for 13.4% of the total circulation.
Label 2: $87,000-$91,000
Below the 'strongest support range' lies a 'buffer zone.' This means that if the 'strongest support range' is breached, BTC will seek new support within this zone. Because this area is not far from the upper dense chip area, the temporarily trapped 2.65 million coins will not create panic selling pressure; instead, it will attract more capital to buy in here.
Label 3: $76,000-$86,000
This is a relatively rare 'fault zone.' Historically, there has never been a permanently maintained fault zone, which means that the 'fault' will eventually be filled. If we try to fill the fault now, it will inevitably raise doubts in the market about whether the 'bull market is still on,' creating panic. This is also the worst-case scenario.
I personally believe the current probabilities of the above three situations are 1>2>3;
Many fans ask when Bitcoin is expected to reverse this bearish trend?
According to historical patterns, from December 2020 to January, there was a one-month consolidation, and it has now been adjusting for 13 days. If it consolidates for another half month, it should be about done.
The current market situation depends on Bitcoin. We are waiting for Bitcoin to complete its adjustment, after which altcoins will take off.
Bitcoin generally peaks 5-6 months in advance, as there is a large amount of capital in circulation, and distribution is a long process. It is clear that we have already reached this point! BTC's market share will continue to decline from now, while ETH will experience explosive growth and will quickly reach the $6,000 position! At the same time, altcoins are beginning a violent season of speculation, which is a true value trap for retail investors! Make sure to hold your positions well and hang in there!
Currently, many altcoins look almost ready based on their K-line structure, but the current correction rhythm of Bitcoin is slower than that of altcoins. We need to wait for Bitcoin to complete its full correction process and structure, allowing for the overall market risk to be released before altcoins can truly rally. Here are some altcoins to consider buying during this correction:
1) AI agent sector, such as secondary market PHA, ATA;
2) Coins held by Grayscale and BlackRock: ZEN, ONDO, etc.;
3) Trump-themed coins: ETH, COW, AAVE;
4) Meme coins heavily held by market makers: GOAT, MOODENG, PNUT.
For reference only, trade at your own risk. Personally, I would prioritize PHA, ZEN, COW.
That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to create a communication group. If you really can't navigate the crypto space on your own, don't force yourself; come find me for guidance, understand the latest information, layout, embrace the bull market, and improve your win rate while saying goodbye to being trapped at high positions.
