Yesterday's cryptocurrency market felt like a mini roller coaster. BTC just shook a little. Those market makers really wanted to pull the price back, but they failed, indicating that everyone is quite satisfied with this price! Remember, when the price is low, we buy; when it's high, we wait, don’t rush to sell everything. This way, we won't fear the ups and downs, and our mindset will be as steady as Mount Tai! When it comes to trading, don't be too impatient; don't rush into it out of excitement. Have a plan and take it slow. After all, we’re playing for the long term, not just keeping an eye on short-term fluctuations.
1. As we all know, the main driving force behind this bull market is US capital;
2. Currently, the Americans are still in a holiday state (Christmas → New Year);
3. Therefore, it can be seen that the current liquidity is very insufficient, especially on weekends. Observing point: the BTC spot on CB has a negative premium compared to BN.
Today's Bitcoin analysis: a relatively typical short-term pattern has emerged: M-head. I have mentioned before that this pattern is not suitable for trading long or short on its own. It needs to be combined with the current overall market state, and then key positions should be found in the pattern to make a move, as shown in the picture.
The operational strategy can generally be followed in the steps below:
1. Determine the overall trend (upward, sideways, downward);
2. Based on the overall trend, identify key positions in the chart pattern (upper and lower edges);
3. Open a position and set take profit and stop loss (take profit can be moved).
A few days ago, I mentioned that the daily MA30 moving average has broken and is flattening, indicating that the daily MA30 ascending triangle has been broken, and the short to medium term has actually shifted from upward to sideways. Yesterday, I said that BTC maintaining sideways here is a good thing, as it will increase the probability of horizontal adjustments or building a bottom.
We can see that on the third day after the decline began, when the closing price was reached, the price of the daily MA60 moving average was 88000 USD, and it is now 91726 USD. If the K-line can maintain sideways movement above 92000 USD, the large-level moving averages will converge towards the K-line, and large-level moving averages often have a support effect. This is also one of the methods to judge the strength of the market.
Is it that adjustments are made after negative news is released? Or is it that adjustments are made based on negative news? It doesn't matter.
1. What cycle is the current big cycle in?
2. If it has risen too much, and multiple indicators are overbought or diverging, does such adjustment strength represent strength or weakness?
3. What is the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market today? (Sentiment gathering places like certain An, certain Te)
Due to the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoin trends, Bitcoin is still in a structural adjustment phase. Therefore, current bottom-fishing is a left-side strategy, just pay attention to controlling the position size.
Ethereum is indeed worth holding for a long time; this is Ethereum's historical rise and fall in the first quarter and in January, February, and March.
It can be seen that except for the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, there have been considerable returns in the first quarter during other times. The pattern for Ethereum in January is not very obvious; historically, the last drop also occurred in January. The certain market trends are in the months of February and March. Hold your bullets, don't fall before dawn.
Trump will officially take office as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025. The new government sector should be hyped before taking office. I also want to remind you to pay attention to the relevant tokens in the new government sector: (Bitcoin has risen again! The secondary market is exploding! Altcoins have made a fortune! A glimpse of 10x—100x altcoins in the bull market!)! Grayscale's strict selection, presidential pick of coins, a glimpse of 10x—100x altcoins in the bull market! You can just copy the homework!
Today, let's talk again about why I say following Grayscale's layout will yield profits.
Let’s take some time to summarize the cryptocurrencies that Grayscale has recently bottomed out on, which meet the criteria of appreciation in the last 7 days and one month as follows:
LINK has recently bottomed out at 50866 coins.
FIL has recently bottomed out at 106686 coins.
SOL has recently bottomed out at 4713 coins.
BCH has recently bottomed out at 7579 coins.
LTC has recently bottomed out at 33110 coins.
ZEN has recently bottomed out at 304031 coins.
XLM has been offloading for the past week, so I won't record it.
Finally, let's say: although altcoins in the secondary market have not performed well these days except for platform coins, on-chain, especially AI agents, are still thriving. The top few virtual currencies still maintain a 3.1 billion FDV, and Fartcoin and AI16z also boast a market value of billions, completely unaffected by the market correction.
Several newly listed blue chips, GAME has been held for value discovery, previously it was benchmarked against agents like AIXBT and LUNA, but now GAME has directly changed tracks to benchmark AI16Z, and in recent days it has surged 3x, with its market value approaching AIXBT. It seems that the ceiling will be even higher in the future.
The new rising stars in the track are also emerging one after another. Projects like SPORE, which is AI self-reproducing, have already produced the third generation.
Personally, I think the AI agent era will last a long time, possibly even longer than this crypto bull market. This is also the reason I believe there will be at least three AI agent projects with a market value reaching 10 billion in this round.