The previous four-hour candle significantly spoiled the picture for BTC. This is a bearish engulfing pattern, and the bears fell just short of converting the price into a stable downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe according to our indicator.
Currently, there has only been one basic target fulfilled for the stable uptrend established on December 25 - $99,684. Breaking the uptrend after such modest fulfillment is a rare precedent for #BTC on this timeframe. The last time this happened with our indicator was back in early July of this year. Since then, with a signal of a stable uptrend, at least basic targets (and often additional ones) have been fulfilled in 12 out of 13 cases. For example, the previous signal from December 11 at the peak yielded +7.1%, with three basic targets and one additional being fulfilled.
For now, the uptrend remains, but the situation is shaky. To remove doubts, the price must recover above the Potential break level according to the indicator, which is $95,267. What is particularly concerning is that the movements since December 17 are increasingly reminiscent of a 'Bear Flag'. With targets around $85,000 and even $78,000. It's unlikely to expect a high percentage of bearish impulse fulfillment in a bullish market. However, if the price transitions into a stable downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe - it would update the low of December 20 ($92,232).
What about the mass signals of a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe for more than 100 altcoins today?
For now, the absolute majority of them are still in force. Out of 105 assets that gave bullish signals, only 13 have returned to the bears.
Overall, during this impulsive decline, altcoins have performed well, ensuring a decrease in dominance to 58.09%. The 58% level remains key, and its possible breakout could trigger a sharp downward impulse in dominance. But alongside this, significant assets like SOL, LTC, and LINK have also entered downtrends on the four-hour timeframe (which is much more important). The potential for decline isn't super high, but 6-10% on basic targets is threatening. Plus, the mentioned weakness of BTC is concerning.
Conflicting signals are accumulating, the question is which of them will be broken.
Returning to BTC - let's remember that yesterday, touching on the expiration of options, we performed an analysis of the Price Volatility Index and stated that to confirm the forecast, we need to wait for the daily candle to close. It closed, and the downward trend of the Index was confirmed. Moreover, its fulfillment continued today.
The forecast for a decrease in volatility until January 1-3 remains valid. Although, of course, today's 'whipsaw' doesn't quite align with the drop in volatility - it is, after all, relatively local, between the volume levels of $97,553 and $94,199. Within 3%.
