Christmas Eve passed peacefully, but unexpectedly, the market started a slight adjustment this morning. Tonight, the US stock market will open normally, and we will see if the main capital returns. Currently, risk aversion is still relatively high during Asian hours, so tonight is a key point. You need to understand what conditions are required for the market to reverse upwards, especially in the first four trading days before Christmas, when the Bitcoin ETF saw a total outflow of $1.5 billion. This suggests that if no more positive news appears, there may still be capital outflow tonight. Outflows from the ETF indicate a risk-averse sentiment among off-exchange funds, making tonight very critical. The key is whether we can reverse the capital outflow.
The current adjustment and decline are merely due to some funds unwilling to bet on tonight's data, using this last window before the US stock market opens for risk aversion. However, this situation does not affect long-term holdings or short-term trading; ultimately, only the retail investors trading contracts will be hurt!
Recently, there have been rumors in the market that the EU plans to delist USDT. Many friends have asked if Crab Boss will be affected and whether they should convert USDT to another stablecoin.
Once this news broke, many who were previously indecisive began to waver, fearing that the market might experience a black swan event because of it. But one must understand the basics behind the news: what is the actual situation of the EU delisting USDT?
You need to understand that the EU delisting USDT is only a matter for its own virtual currency exchanges and has nothing to do with global exchanges like Binance, OKEx, or Coinbase. Therefore, the only people affected are those using EU exchanges, who may not be able to use USDT for trading in the future.
In summary, there is fundamentally no impact. This news actually came out in October, so why are there people creating panic at this time? The root cause is that last week's decline affected their mindset. As of now, the market has not finished its adjustment, which is entirely due to the US market closure and capital outflow. Therefore, many people cannot see the negatives, and seeing the market not rising makes them start to waver in their mindset.
Therefore, I still advise everyone to understand the underlying logic behind the news, just like when buying altcoins. If you cannot comprehend the news, then what is the logic behind the altcoins you are buying? Do not let the market's emotions lead you astray, and do not trade emotionally. Only by taking steady steps can we establish a foothold in the market and seize real opportunities to make money.
In fact, we have recently felt quite clearly that both the market liquidity and trading volume of Bitcoin have decreased. However, note that after the holidays, there is usually an influx of funds.
In addition to individual retail investors' funds, institutions are also making purchases at the beginning of the year, as fund managers will complete their rebalancing before the end of the year and before the Christmas holidays. This rebalancing will involve some turnover, and some assets will be sold off for profit. As the year ends, dividends must be paid to shareholders, leading to many assets being sold.
However, after the New Year, that is, after the Christmas holidays, fund managers will again rebalance and choose some higher-quality assets for their clients. As you know, institutions often deal with tens of millions or even hundreds of millions in funds, and any movement they make can influence the entire market.
Therefore, after the Christmas holidays, with institutional rebalancing and historical data indicating that the US stock market and Bitcoin are likely to rise.
Finally, recharge your faith, everyone:
January 20: Trump’s inauguration
It is well known that after taking office, we will see the positive comments from the old man regarding crypto, which are likely to positively influence the market. Therefore, it is best to hold patiently for now.
FTX's $16 billion repayment
This is the closest to us; the news states that repayments will start on January 6th, with an expected completion of $16 billion within 60 days. Such a large amount of funds entering the market could signal a key rebound in the crypto space, possibly even pushing it to the next level.
Ethereum Staking ETF
The Ethereum staking feature is expected to be launched after Trump takes office, which will enhance Ethereum's attractiveness and is likely to attract a lot of buying interest. Staking applications will probably appear in January, and before the Christmas holidays, the market has already seen an inflow of $131 million in buying funds. This shows that institutions in the market are also looking forward to the launch of staking.
Ethereum Prague Upgrade
Looking back at previous Ethereum upgrades, generally, after each upgrade, its price tends to experience a significant upward trend within three months. According to historical patterns, this upgrade is also expected to yield results in January; we just don't know if it will be delayed. However, each Ethereum upgrade has experienced delays, but that does not affect the arrival of the final upward trend.
Seeing this news, I hope everyone does not waver in their expectations for the crypto space. The adjustments we encounter are temporary. If the US stock market closes up tonight and the ETF starts to flow in, you will thank yourself for not cutting losses during the downturn!
The Binance exclusive chat room for Crab Boss is here! Click the yellow text link below to join. There will be red envelope benefits in the future, including updates on wealth codes and more timely news!!!