During the Christmas holiday, traditional markets enter a shutdown, while the cryptocurrency market sees a significant rise driven by Bitcoin. Currently, the maximum pain point for BTC options is $84,000, and for ETH, it is $3,000. However, based on market performance, it is highly likely that this year's annual maximum pain point will become invalid, similar to previous years. Furthermore, the short-term implied volatility (IV) continues to decline compared to yesterday, and the market makers are nearing the end of their position adjustments. It is expected that IV will mainly remain stable before the end of the year. During the Christmas holiday to the end of the year delivery period, market liquidity is poor, and the momentum needed for price changes is small, which may continue to present a volatile market.
From the candlestick analysis, the hourly chart has been continuously fluctuating downwards since last weekend, falling from 99,500 to 92,500. Currently, with the 99-day moving average and the 25-day moving average forming a golden cross, the downward wave structure is declared over, and future market trends will be more focused on the turning point of the 99-day moving average to determine the direction of the weekly K development. However, the current unfortunate situation is that the AO momentum histogram is showing a reduction, and short-term upward movement may face obstacles. It is not recommended to continue going long.