Master discusses hot topics:
On the eve of Christmas, the bell has not yet rung, but there is already a chill in the market. The festive atmosphere seems to have failed to alleviate the market's gloom. With the US stock market closed and liquidity decreasing, some are worried that the market, under emotional dominance, may experience a deeper decline and choose to exit early to avoid this 'Christmas disaster'.
I believe we still need to observe tomorrow's Asian and European sessions. If they can remain stable, even if the US market is closed, it may not cause any major disturbances. However, if the Asian session falters and the European session passes on panic, Christmas may turn into a 'liquidation holiday'. At such times, the flow of funds becomes particularly important.
Recently, some fans have privately messaged me asking about the situation: Bitcoin is falling, but Ethereum and altcoins are actually rising against the trend. Is it the season for altcoins? My answer remains the same: the altcoin season will certainly come, but it will never start during a panic. If Bitcoin is falling sharply, would funds really go buy altcoins for safety? Isn't that a bit too far from reality?
The real altcoin season is often accompanied by Bitcoin's consolidation or slight rise, with market sentiment running high and a profit-making effect spreading. The current market environment is more of a 'false peak' within small fluctuations, which is not enough to raise the curtain on the altcoin season.
Even if altcoin prices briefly rise during the Christmas period, it is mostly an emotional rebound and does not represent the start of a trend.
Returning to the main character Bitcoin, based on historical patterns, the current oscillation pullback is expected to last another two weeks. There is a high probability it will break below the last liquidation long wick at 90600, and it may even test around 85000.
But this is not the end of the bull market in this round, but rather a buildup of strength for the next round of increases. My personal expectation is that around mid-January next year, the market may welcome a new round of increases.
Additionally, Ethereum has shown more resilience than Bitcoin during this decline, and it is expected to be difficult to break below the 3000-3100 range. The probability of Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin is increasing, and at this stage, it is more like a barometer of market confidence. Those altcoins that have already been oversold might be potential candidates in the subsequent market.
That being said, Christmas is a day for expecting miracles, but in the investment market, miracles have always belonged to those who plan well. In a market dominated by emotions, rationality is a rare mindset. May this Christmas, our positions be as stable as a pine in the snow, rather than withering like leaves in the cold wind.
Master's view on the trend:
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the 94K range, with an extended adjustment cycle. Due to hawkish interest rate cut expectations and the emergence of arbitrage selling, Bitcoin continues to adjust and decline. Meanwhile, the buying power in the US market has weakened, further leading to the formation of a premium.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95500
Second resistance level: 97800
Support level reference:
First support level: 92600
Second support level: 90800
Today's suggestion:
Currently in the resistance zone after a double bottom formation, it may continue to maintain a box oscillation trend until a trend reversal occurs. If it breaks through 95K and forms a trend breakout, entry opportunities can be sought in the pullback range.
If the bottom can be raised, there may be a possibility of a short-term increase, but caution is needed to deal with potential adjustments brought by the resistance zone.
92.6K is the previous high point area and also the current key support level. Typically, if it breaks below the previously initiated point, the probability of a downward trend will significantly increase. Currently, 92.6K is a key support zone; if this level can be maintained, it may sustain short-term rebound possibilities.
As a trend reversal has not yet occurred, the possibility of further declines cannot be ruled out. When long positions reach profit targets, it is advisable to take profits promptly and accumulate gains.
12.24 Master's wave prediction:
Long entry reference: light long at 92600, if it pulls back to the 90800 range, go long directly, target: 94800-95500
Short entry reference: light short in the 95500-96000 range, target: 94000-92600