Over the weekend, BTC continued to consolidate below the 30-day moving average. This week, the Federal Reserve concluded its last interest rate meeting of the year. Bitcoin had a rollercoaster ride, soaring and then falling back, from 108k to 92k, quite a bitter experience. At the last moment, the Federal Reserve still tried to support the dollar with high interest rates. I never believe that tough talk and high interest rates are a long-term solution. Today's high interest is tomorrow's water. If actual value creation continues to lag behind high interest rates, then today's high interest is akin to drinking poison to quench thirst. Therefore, my confidence in Bitcoin's long-term victory will never be shaken by the Federal Reserve's tough talk.
The American Empire is a paper tiger. The Federal Reserve is the paper tiger among paper tigers.
Currently, after Bitcoin's price fell below 99,000, it has not recovered for three consecutive days, which is not considered a positive signal in terms of pattern. It is necessary to reserve some low long positions. At the same time, the large-scale medium to long-term support structure is intact and shows an upward trend. I feel that it won't drop too much here. If there is an opportunity to fill the lower shadow and make new lows, mid-term chips can be boldly traded.
From the perspective of the 1H to 4H range, although there is dense short-term resistance above, the support at the head and shoulders bottom neck line and the left shoulder area is also quite obvious. Short-term can refer to aggressive orders for a breakout upwards. Other reference points are as follows:
Short-term resistance at 99,524~101,468, second resistance at 103,855~105,931, the current point is hovering around short-term support, second support at 94,301~93,310 (watch the market for quick in and out), medium-term support at 91,072~89,636 (can place orders).
Aggressive order: Get some at the current price, stop loss at 95,230 (1H entity).
Now you must firmly believe that the bull trend is still on, and the main upward wave is about to start; otherwise, the opportunity for sudden wealth is destined to be unrelated to you! We compare it with previous candlestick trends:
(1) The market officially started in September 2020, refer to the candlestick chart and see for yourself!
(2) The first round of trend big market after the bear market in September 2023 for reference, as shown in the picture!
(3) This round of market trends also bottomed out in September. Let's take a look at the lines!
(4) The BTC 50 EMA has the same structure and scene as the previous bull market.
If the EMA 50 maintains the support level of 2021, it will head towards a new ATH. 2021 and 2024:
2021: (1) ATH breakthrough; (2) Pullback to 50 EMA; (3) New ATH.
2024: (1) ATH breakthrough; (2) Pullback to 50 EMA; (3) ??? ???.
(5) Looking back at previous bull markets, Bitcoin reached a new high after Christmas.
History does not repeat itself, but it is always strikingly similar. So brothers, will next week be a week of significant meaning?
In summary, there are too many coincidences; could this just be a similarity? History must be worth referencing, so I believe this round of adjustment has already fallen enough. I expect about 10 more days of adjustment, during which there will be repeated fluctuations to establish a bottom, followed by a large main upward wave.
