When the black swan arrives, I really dare not make random calls.
This image shows my state of mind at that time.
After selling at high position signals, I was always looking for entry opportunities after a pullback, but I really kept losing money, losing again and again. Although it was wear and tear, getting slapped in the face was still quite uncomfortable, and I couldn't switch to a bearish mindset.
At that time, I thought that even if the favorable interest rate cuts were fully digested in advance, at least it would stop falling and end the pullback. I didn't expect that just two sentences from Fed Chairman Powell would create a small black swan... Plus, at the end of the year, everyone was originally focused on when to cash out this year's profits, and such a small piece of bad news led to a stampede.
Why do I say it is a small black swan? Bitcoin fell less than 10%, Ethereum fell more than 10%, I have never seen a smaller black swan than this. The stretched space, just facing Trump's inauguration, in order to reflect the prosperity, had to be raised back to create momentum for him.
So with this expectation, I entered the market again today, I believe it will not pull back to pick up people again, I directly got back in.
Let me talk about my trading method, buying all spot first, then opening 3-5 times the leveraged long positions with the supported coins.
Time schedule:
1. The capital escape at the end of the year has already been completed in advance, I will hold low-leverage long positions through Christmas and the New Year. Unless there is a black swan, such as Trump being assassinated. I won't move on this, I won't lose this position, more than ten spots plus opening 3x leverage, buying is also quite troublesome, I'll hold until Trump takes office.
2. January 20, 2025, Trump takes office, I predict that there should be a rally before this day, monitoring the market on that day, taking the high point to clear out and exchange for USDT.
3. Go into cash ahead of Japan's monetary policy meeting on January 23, 2025, predicting there will be bad news, trying to open short positions.
4. If there is a major pullback at the end of January, look for entry opportunities. If nothing happens, go into cash for our Spring Festival on January 29, 2025.