As January 2024 approaches, the market generally expects the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is as high as 91.4%. This means that unless there are unexpected economic data or financial crises, the Fed will most likely choose to keep the existing monetary policy stable. Although the probability of a rate cut is 8.6%, the possibility of a rate cut is small based on the current economic environment.
From the perspective of the crypto market, the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has brought positive signals to the cryptocurrency market. First, the unchanged interest rate means that the US dollar will not appreciate significantly in the short term, thus avoiding the suppression of crypto asset prices. Secondly, the market expects that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates, which provides a certain degree of stability to the market. Especially for mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, a stable macroeconomic environment is undoubtedly a catalyst for the market recovery.
From BlackRock's Bitcoin holding data, its holdings have surpassed 550,000 BTC, with a market value of over $56 billion. As one of the world's largest asset management companies, BlackRock's positioning in the crypto market undoubtedly increases market trust in cryptocurrencies. BlackRock's investment behavior signifies that institutional funds are continuously flowing into the crypto market, providing support for Bitcoin's price. BlackRock's investments not only indicate institutions' long-term optimism about crypto assets but also show that global investors' confidence in digital assets like Bitcoin is gradually recovering.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining company Hut 8's recent purchase actions have also brought positive signals to the market. Hut 8 purchased 990 BTC at an average price of $101,710, bringing its total holdings to 10,096 BTC, with a market value exceeding $1 billion. Hut 8 has surpassed Tesla, becoming the fourth publicly traded company to hold over 10,000 BTC. This move not only indicates the mining company's optimistic expectations for Bitcoin's future price but also highlights the importance of digital assets as a reserve asset for enterprises.
Interestingly, Hut 8 also announced plans to raise $500 million through a newly issued stock program, part of which will be used to purchase Bitcoin and other digital assets in the open market. This move undoubtedly further consolidates Bitcoin's position as a reserve asset. The continuous accumulation by mining companies and the active entry of institutions have led to a sustained increase in market demand for Bitcoin, and it is expected that Bitcoin's price will steadily rise in the near future.
In contrast, there is the Trump family's crypto project WLFI. According to monitoring data, the WLFI team currently holds 15,597 ETH, with a total value of approximately $53.46 million, of which 8,827 ETH (worth around $32.47 million) that were actively purchased have incurred a floating loss of about $2.1 million. Although WLFI’s investment has shown losses, this investment action indicates that cryptocurrency is not just a battlefield for large institutions like Bitcoin and Ethereum; individual investors and family offices are also accelerating their entry into this market. While floating losses may cause some investors to panic, the long-term value potential of cryptocurrency remains optimistic.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 16,700 ETH yesterday, valued at $60.5 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 6,707 BTC yesterday, valued at $667.2 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a 'small bearish candle', indicating weak market sentiment, accompanied by a net outflow of $667.2 million in spot ETF funds, which has intensified market panic.
In summary, even if there is a rebound from overselling in the short term, the difficulty of prices returning above the 5-day moving average is considerable, with heavy selling pressure above. If the bulls fail to stabilize effectively at the 30-day moving average, subsequent movements may experience fluctuations and test the 60-day and 120-day moving average positions.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum formed a 'large bearish candle', having fallen below the 30-day moving average. Although there is a demand for a rebound due to overselling in the short term, there is still a possibility of further declines testing the 60-day and 120-day moving averages. Patiently wait for adjustments, as there will still be opportunities to restore the upward trend in the future.
Altcoins: The current market sentiment is not very good, especially in the altcoin market. As Bitcoin remains in a downward trend, the overall market funds have shrunk a bit, and trading activity has decreased, with everyone generally leaning towards risk aversion. Many altcoins’ prices have already retreated to the bottom range, making significant fluctuations difficult in the short term. This also indicates that now is not a good time for speculation; we need to wait for the market's fund sentiment to recover before starting a new upward trend. So, do not be impatient, wait patiently; the big altcoin market has not yet arrived, and the market's funds will gradually warm up in the future.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)#圣诞行情预测