Macroeconomic:
1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected, in line with market expectations.
Interest Rate Decision + Speech Interpretation:
(1) The interest rate decision meets expectations, which is a positive outcome, but in Fed Chair Powell's speech, he revealed that the Fed has no intention of holding BTC and that inflation expectations have not been met. The overall tone is bearish, and the short-term price is affected and subsequently declines.
(2) Regarding next year's monetary policy, he indicated that rate hikes seem unlikely to occur next year, which appears to be positive overall, indicating a relatively loose tone, but the word "seems" carries significant uncertainty, especially in light of stagflation and the recent strong US economic data. More data will be needed in the future to validate his views.
2. Following Powell's mention of slowing rate hikes, overall interest rates remain at a high level, and high rates typically weigh on the stock market and reduce investment attractiveness—US stocks have experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq recording its largest single-day drop since August.
3. Trump's crypto project, World Liberty, has increased its holdings by over 230,000 ENA, and the funding increase is a positive indicator to watch for future buying opportunities.
4. Liquidation data shows a major long position being liquidated, with amounts significantly increased compared to previous days, and short positions dominate in the short term.
5. The BTC spot ETF has been affected by Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks and price declines, experiencing its first outflow after maintaining net inflows for 14 consecutive days.
Technical Analysis:
BTC
1. On the daily chart, a bearish Evening Star pattern has officially formed, with a large bearish candle engulfing the previous trend.
2. A large bearish candle has broken the midline of the channel, confirming the breakout with good volume-price coordination. Pay attention to the recovery situation after breaking the midline; in the short term, consider the potential reverse pressure of the midline in a bearish scenario.
3. Currently, the focus is on the support opportunity for going long at the resonance support of the channel's lower boundary and the lower boundary of the BOLL band. Until a formal breakdown occurs, the overall trend remains bullish.
4. In the 4H chart, the pattern shows an inverted V reversal, completing a 1:1 decline. After the ascending trendline was broken, its reverse pressure level coincides with previous high points—this is key for bulls to return to strength in the future.
5. In the 1H chart, the head and shoulders top pattern completes a 1:1 spatial trend, where the low point resonates with the long-term EMA moving average.
6. Considering the KD and RSI are oversold, under the support of the long-term EMA moving average, the short-term running space can refer to the EMA moving average range—buy high and sell low.