CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?
Hello everyone, colleagues!
So, what do we have in the middle of the trading week:
Since the last review, Bitcoin managed to rewrite its maximum again and on the Bitstamp exchange reached a mark above $108K.
Also, yesterday there was a meeting of the Federal Reserve, the decision of which was to lower the rate by another 25 basis points, followed by the traditional conference of J. Powell, during which and after it, there was a sell-off in many markets.
As for Bitcoin specifically, a correction has been overdue for a long time, and from its high, the asset has only corrected by 9%, and this decline cannot be called unexpected. At the moment, BTC continues to stay in trend and there is still room for continued correction at least down to the ascending support around the $97-98K marks, and we cannot rule out a further dip below, to the trading range at $94K. But overall, from these values, I expect a buyback and continued growth.
I expect another nearby decline, as mentioned above, in the framework of the candlestick formation 'Engulfing' on the 1 Day timeframe. For the first time in a long time, the asset showed a strong bearish candle and just covered the gap from the last weekend on the CME exchange. In any case, a correction is needed for any healthy market, whether bullish or bearish.
If we compare each cycle after the halving on a logarithmic chart of the 1 Month timeframe, we will see that the asset continued to grow for at least another year. Therefore, there is every chance to continue the growth, at least until spring 2025, or even until the fourth quarter.
Regarding Ethereum, at the beginning of the week I also expected another decline, at least to $3700 (to the halfway point of the previous 1 Week candle's wick), but in fact, we worked out almost the entire wick. Ethereum, compared to other altcoins, has shown itself to be stronger and did not react as much as the others. Personally, my altcoin portfolio dropped from +80% to +50%. But I think that regarding Bitcoin dominance #BTC.D, we have reached the maximum of the correction and we may soon continue to decline. In the opposite case, altcoins will struggle. But there is good news that for many altcoins, the price has now approached areas of interest where those who haven't yet can consider buying.
Regarding Ethereum, I believe that a stronger and more active growth will begin after the price breaks above the resistance level of $4K and 0.04BTC in the pair with Bitcoin. In the near future, if the price does not return above the global descending resistance this week, we may see a price below $3500 as a reaction to a false breakout, and then, most likely, we will continue with a slight sideways movement with a further breakout towards the historical maximum.
