Denmark warned that the Russian Navy may begin escorting so-called 'shadow fleet' tankers through the Danish Straits as a provocation against NATO countries.

The Danish Defense Intelligence Service stated in its annual security outlook report on Wednesday that the threat to Denmark has become 'more severe,' with Russia now having more options to challenge NATO member states with 'more threatening military actions.'

This could include allowing Russian warships to escort tankers carrying millions of barrels of Moscow oil through the Baltic Sea. The agency stated, 'If this happens, tensions will escalate.'

Twelve Nordic countries, including Denmark, announced earlier this week that they would inspect insurance policies for passing Russian tankers. More concrete actions can be taken next against uninsured vessels.

Denmark will play a key role in implementing these inspections, as its narrow straits are an important trade artery, through which Russian oil has largely flowed unchecked since the full outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, helping to fund Putin's military actions.

Denmark's foreign intelligence service stated that Russia is expected to show more reckless behavior towards civilian shipping and aviation.

Reports indicate that its tools may include conducting military exercises near NATO territory, as well as interfering over large geographical areas 'without regard for the communication and GPS signals of ships and aircraft.'

It stated that more threatening actions against military aircraft and vessels of Denmark and other NATO countries would similarly 'raise the risk of misunderstandings and minor collisions in the Baltic Sea and Arctic.'

Since October, Russia's maritime crude oil volume has decreased by about 11%, and in the past week, maintenance work at one of the country's major export terminals further reduced crude oil flows.

After removing weekly fluctuations, Russia's daily export volume is slightly above 3 million barrels. As of December 15, the four-week average daily export volume was 3.06 million barrels, down from a recent peak of 3.46 million barrels two months ago. This decline is attributed to Western nations intensifying pressure on the shadow tanker fleet Russia has established to maintain oil supplies, while the weekly operating rate of the country's refineries has also reached its highest level since mid-August, which may reduce the amount of crude oil available for export.

After OPEC+ once again postponed plans to start increasing production, Russia is also facing increasing pressure to comply with OPEC+ production targets, which have been extended to the end of March next year.

In the weeks before Trump's return to the White House, European countries intensified sanctions against ships transporting oil from Moscow, while the United States weighed new, harsher measures.

On Monday, the EU added 42 tankers to its sanctions list, although more than half of them have already been sanctioned by the UK. Additionally, 12 European countries will clamp down on tankers transporting Russian oil globally.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has confirmed 238 tankers, claiming they belong to the shadow fleet, hoping authorities will sanction more tankers. There is evidence that these actions have had an impact, as nearly two-thirds of the tankers sanctioned by Western countries for participating in the Russian oil trade remain idle, many of them clustered near Russian ports.

Vessel tracking data and port agent reports indicate that 27 tankers loaded 20.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil in the week ending December 15. This is a decrease from 29 vessels and 22 million barrels the previous week.

The Kremlin's oil revenues have declined alongside crude oil flows, with the weekly average price trends of Russia's main crude varieties varying. In the week ending December 15, the total value of oil shipments from Moscow fell by about $70 million to $1.36 billion.

Article republished from: Jin10 Data