The recent highs of Bitcoin have been difficult to chase. The market news is positive. The basic rule is that the market will rise before the good news, fall when the good news is coming, and the market will pull back after the good news is implemented. Once the decline begins, it will not end in the short term. It will take a period of adjustment to accumulate strength before rising again. There is no profit in the short term. BTC has a local peak signal. Although Bitcoin rose further yesterday, it is already at the end of its strength. At present, there are obvious local peak signals: (1) The 4-hour RSI has shown two consecutive top divergences, which is an obvious overbought signal;
(2) Strongly indicative ETFs such as FBTC, ARKB, and BITB have ended five consecutive trading days of net inflows and have turned into large net outflows, indicating a shift from buying to selling in ETFs;
The next trend of Bitcoin has two possibilities: Scenario (1):
The third sub-wave of the fifth wave has been completed, and the fourth sub-wave has begun. Next, it will pull back to STH RP.
Scenario (2):
The third sub-wave of the fifth wave has not yet been completed. Next, it will first pull back to MA30 before continuing to rise. It is currently difficult to say which possibility is greater; it mainly depends on whether Bitcoin will effectively break below MA30. The current MA30 corresponding price: 98400, STH RP corresponding price: 84000.
After the sharp decline of altcoins on December 9, they have undergone nearly 10 days of volatile consolidation. Currently, most altcoins are undergoing a second test, with relatively low trading volume, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. Previously, after Bitcoin reached a local peak on November 22, altcoins generally experienced a significant upward trend. Bitcoin has now shown signs of a local peak again, and it is possible that altcoins will experience another upward trend after completing the second test.
However, it should be noted that the current market conditions are still quite different from before:
(1) The current growth rate of USDT supply is significantly slower than before, and the market liquidity is not as optimistic as it was then;
(2) At that time, Ethereum had just started a new upward trend after the consolidation from November 15 to November 20, while the current trend of Ethereum is not as optimistic as it was then. In the face of potential pullback risks during the transition period between December and January, we must pay attention to position management! Risk control is always the top priority.
There have been many pullbacks previously, and I saw some friends getting out, yet the price remains the same, and the positions are gone (mainly referring to the leveraged part here). It's really hard to watch this situation happen. In fact, most of the assets in the market are not cheap now, especially those related to Trump. At this time, there are not many assets that can be selected to follow Bitcoin's rhythm; if we must, priority should be given to ETH, DOGE, and SOL; for others, we can only continue to wait.
At this time, Bitcoin has been rising, and when your relatives and friends ask you if you have made money, you feel helpless and cannot answer immediately. When buying, you don’t necessarily have to follow others, but rather choose projects that you recognize and understand. If you buy the right ones, any subsequent rise is just icing on the cake. That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to have discussions. If you really can't navigate the crypto world on your own, don't force yourself; come find me for mentorship, get the latest information, layout, embrace the bull market, improve your win rate, and say goodbye to being stuck at high positions.
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