Bitcoin's continuous new highs also align with expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rising from 103,000 to 107,000, and now the exchange rate has fallen back to 106,500. The speculative index for altcoins has also dropped from the previous high of 90 to 63. Currently, BTC's bleeding effect is very strong. Historically, before every interest rate cut, they first pump Bitcoin, and after the cut, they pump it even more. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is not far from 110,000, and if the market goes crazy, 150,000 can also be seen. After all, BTC is now driven by listed companies and large institutions.
For example, yesterday the CEO of MicroStrategy spent $1.5 billion to buy 15,350 BTC at an average price of $100,386. This is also one of the reasons why BTC has been showing an independent bleeding trend in recent days. Every time institutions make large purchases of BTC, it leads to a period of bleeding trend.
Many institutions, including listed companies, dare to buy at this position, even at the expense of raising their average price. This shows they believe that 100,000 USD Bitcoin is just the beginning. After discussing Bitcoin, let's look at Ethereum. Ethereum performed well today, relatively ignoring Bitcoin's bleeding, with prices consistently above 4,000, peaking at 4,107 last night, reaching a new high for the year. However, ETH/BTC is still below 0.038. For altcoins to rotate, this indicator is also significant. This week, it is clear that ETH's turnover period has passed, and ETF continues to see net inflows. This means that Wall Street's money is continuously coming in, while the veterans in the native crypto space have sold off significantly. I remain optimistic about Ethereum breaking new highs.
Currently, the best strategy is to hold without action. In a bull market, all strategies cannot compare to holding. The explosion of altcoins will be quick; when Bitcoin rises, Ethereum rises, and when Ethereum rises, altcoins rise—that's the order. Don't be fooled by the current sleepy state of altcoins; they can ramp up quickly.
Next, when selecting altcoins, there must be a narrative to get in:
As everyone knows, altcoins have the opportunity to pump when there is hype around a narrative. For example, several coins that have seen considerable gains recently include AAVE, ETH, and LINK, mainly because institutions under Trump have shown buying interest in these tokens, driving up their prices.
In fact, we can see their commonality among these coins, which is the Ethereum system combined with coins that have practical applications.
Secondly, there is another narrative, the next coin to go through an ETF, and the most promising one is actually SOL. Previously, the Crab Boss also mentioned there is a high probability for this, so SOL and its well-known ecosystem projects like JTO, JUP, Pyth, and WIF are worth considering.
Especially for WIF, it is both a meme sector and a SOL sector. Therefore, when this meme altcoin warms up, it can rise, and when SOL warms up, it can also rise.
Regarding entry points, for those who didn't enter at 2.1, you can try placing orders at 2.65-2.5 with the goal of doubling.
In fact, for spot trading, as long as there are good narratives for speculation, it doesn't matter what price you buy in now, as you shouldn't regret it. What you're betting on is the market over the next six months, not the short-term market. Therefore, cherish every drop in the bull market, as these are opportunities for you to build your position!
Macro Events:
This week's focus: data + meetings
Tonight there is the sales data for November, tomorrow night is the third quarter current account data, and the night after that is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, along with the release of GDP and PCE data. The market fluctuations after these data releases are undoubtedly good opportunities for stop-loss orders. Everyone should keep an eye on the lows and set their orders in advance. Once there are sharp fluctuations, they can be filled. Once the main upward wave of ETH arrives, the highs will be higher each time!
The risk is the mood of old Powell's speeches. In December, the latest dot plot will also be released, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve may cut rates 2 to 4 more times in 2025. In Powell's upcoming speeches, he may reveal a more cautious attitude towards rate cuts.
Powell may start to manage market expectations, advising against being overly optimistic and FOMO. He might say that the Federal Reserve will have limited interest rate cuts in 2025, and may not even cut rates in January 2025.
If Powell sends such signals, it may bring further short-term bearishness. Therefore, we need to closely monitor Powell's speeches after the interest rate meeting, as it will directly affect short-term market sentiment and price movements.
Finally, as mentioned at the beginning, the market has not yet turned to the altcoin army. As long as your coins are decent, be patient and wait for the rotation after Bitcoin reaches 110,000.