As early as August, the financial blog Zero Hedge predicted that the Biden Labor Statistics Bureau would revise the number of jobs added from April 2023 to March 2024 by "up to 1 million" during its annual revision. At that time, many were surprised by this prediction, which implied that all employment report data from the past year were errors, and the condition of the U.S. labor market is much worse than the U.S. government admits.
To this day, the final results have been revealed—shocking downward revisions of 818,000, just as the Philadelphia Fed predicted six months ago (in March), showing that the Biden administration's job addition data exaggerated by "at least 800,000."
For the 12 months ending March 31, the final downward revision is 818,000 (or about 68,000 per month), with the implied sharp deterioration in the job market becoming the main scapegoat for the Federal Reserve's initiation of an easing cycle and a significant 50 basis points rate cut.
Zero Hedge wrote: "The reason we mention this is that last Friday, the Philadelphia Fed released the latest shocking data: the Biden administration has not only lied again, but the collapse of the labor market has been covered up for most of the past year, only to be exposed during the annual benchmark revision, and it has continued into the second quarter."
The Philadelphia Fed stated on December 12, "The estimates from the Philadelphia Fed indicate that compared to the preliminary state estimates from the U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau's current employment statistics (CES), the employment changes in 27 states from March to June 2024 are 'significantly different'—the latter being much lower. According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Philadelphia Fed, employment decreased in 25 states, increased in 2 states, while the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia showed minor changes."
Zero Hedge stated that maybe someone can calculate the probability of this distribution occurring naturally, "but our guess is: almost zero." This is also why the Biden Labor Statistics Bureau lowers the employment data every month and creates such a stir every month. The key to the whole thing is to make the labor market appear stronger than it actually is, and then gradually correct all of this. Now, the Philadelphia Fed has once again confirmed, "We have always been right."
Therefore, after initially lowering the job additions for the 12 months ending March 31 by 818,000, the downward revision continued into the second quarter of 2024. The Philadelphia Fed's early benchmark estimates indicate that employment in the 50 states and the District of Columbia actually decreased by 0.1%, instead of the 1.1% increase initially shown by the Labor Statistics Bureau!
According to the conditions of each state, the regional Fed estimates that California will have the largest revision in employment numbers for the nine months ending in June, forecasting a reduction of 172,700 jobs in the state. Texas may see a reduction of 112,100 jobs. The Labor Statistics Bureau's forecast for the third quarter also shows that employment numbers will decrease further.
While the specific details of the revision are still unknown and will be revealed when the final data is published on February 7, 2025, it is indeed clear that all the so-called jobs "created" in the second quarter are actually fake, with no net job creation at all. In fact, the U.S. lost jobs in the second quarter!
Zero Hedge stated that, in short, during Biden's recent attempt to create the impression of economic growth, he lied about everything once again.
Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data