Economic calendar of events from December 16 to 22 that could affect the crypto market.

The key day of the week is, of course, December 18. Another meeting of the US Fed on interest rates and a speech by the head of the agency Jerome Powell. It is noteworthy that, as reported, according to our calculations, the Volatility Index of BTC prices should turn into an uptrend on the daily timeframe from December 18 to 21. So far, everything points to another rate cut of 0.25 percentage points (bullish scenario).

Also, we expect a lot of data, including a 'parade' of central bank decisions on interest rates, on Thursday.

Full schedule for the week:

Monday, December 16:

- The US Manufacturing PMI (December) has already been released - below the forecast. And the Services PMI in the US (December) - above the forecast. Problems in the US manufacturing sector remain, and this is no secret. However, with Trump's victory, many in the risky asset markets are giving the manufacturing sector a benefit of the doubt. This reduces recession fears.

Tuesday, December 17:

- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK time / 18:30 Astana time - Core Retail Sales Index in the US and Retail Sales Volume in the US for November. Important for assessing recession and inflationary risks.

- 16:15 Kyiv time / 17:15 MSK time / 19:15 Astana time - Industrial Production Volume in the US (YoY) (November). Important for assessing recession risks.

Wednesday, December 18:

- 12:00 Kyiv time / 13:00 MSK time / 15:00 Astana time - Core Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index of the EU (November). The indices are important for evaluating the success of fighting inflation and the prospects of the euro. This affects #DXY.

❗️- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 MSK time / 00:00 next day Astana time - Decision on the interest rate of the US Fed.

❗️- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 MSK time / 00:00 next day Astana time - Economic forecasts and statement from the US Fed.

❗️- 21:30 Kyiv time / 22:30 MSK time / 00:30 next day Astana time - Press conference of the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell.

Thursday, December 19:

- 04:30 Kyiv time / 05:30 MSK time / 06:30 Astana time, 05:00 Kyiv time / 06:00 MSK time / 08:00 Astana time - Decision on the interest rate of the Bank of Japan and a report on economic prospects. A pause is planned, and there are no reasons to believe it will be otherwise (a rise could hit the markets, as it did in August).

- 10:30 Kyiv time / 11:30 MSK time / 13:30 Astana time - Decision on the interest rate of the Bank of Sweden (MoM). The Swedish krona is incorporated into the DXY formula.

- 14:00 Kyiv time / 15:00 MSK time / 17:00 Astana time - Decision on the interest rate of the Bank of England, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The British pound is incorporated into the DXY formula.

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK time / 18:30 Astana time - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the US for the third quarter of 2024. Important for evaluating the results of the US Fed's fight against consumer inflation. One of the key metrics for assessing success. Will influence the next rate decision.

- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK time / 18:30 Astana time - US GDP for the third quarter of 2024, GDP Deflator. Important for assessing recession risks. In 2024, it has already brought increased volatility to the crypto market.

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK time / 18:30 Astana time - Weekly initial jobless claims in the US. Important for the US Fed's interest rate decision.

❗️- 23:30 Kyiv time / 00:30 next day MSK time / 02:30 next day Astana time - Balance of the US Fed. Quantitative tightening continues.

Friday, December 20:

- 01:30 Kyiv time / 02:30 MSK time / 04:30 Astana time - Nationwide Core Consumer Price Index from the Bank of Japan (YoY) (November). Consumer inflation. Important due to the yen's role in calculating the US Dollar Index #DXY. And due to Japan's role in the global economy. It is worth considering the dynamics for interest rate forecasts in the country.

- 03:00 Kyiv time / 04:00 MSK time / 06:00 Astana time - Basic interest rate of the People's Bank of China. Important for the ability to pump money into the Chinese economy.

❗️- 17:00 Kyiv time / 18:00 MSK time / 20:00 Astana time - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the US (YoY) (November), Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the US (YoY) (November). Important for evaluating the results of the US Fed's fight against consumer inflation. One of the key metrics for assessing success. Will influence the next rate decision.

- 17:00 Kyiv time / 18:00 MSK time / 20:00 Astana time - Personal Consumption Expenditures in the US (MoM) (November). An inflationary factor, also important for the Fed.

- 17:00 Kyiv time / 18:00 MSK time / 20:00 Astana time - Expected inflation from the University of Michigan for November, Consumer Inflation Expectations Index in the US for 5 years ahead from the University of Michigan, Consumer Expectations Index from the University of Michigan for November, Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan for December. We continue to monitor them after the publication of this data this year became a reason for increased volatility.