This morning, Bitcoin surged again, refreshing its historical high to around 106,600 points, with market sentiment starkly different from Bitcoin's new high, showing no hint of celebratory atmosphere. As altcoins continue to decline, the pessimistic sentiment in the market is gradually intensifying, resembling the calm before the storm.
The recent new high for Bitcoin does not belong to liquidity intervention, judging from the outcome of the Coinbase premium being directly equalized, but rather is a market reaction caused by the sharp increase in short contracts and the accumulation of bullish momentum. The subsequent market pullback also indirectly indicates a conservative attitude of short-term capital.
So when Bitcoin rises without the accumulation of external funds, other sectors of the market cannot enjoy the premium dividends brought by Bitcoin's new highs, and the wealth effect cannot continue in the market, making the downward momentum inevitable. Uncle tends to believe that the market has formed a relatively high position for Bitcoin in the short term, and that the leading funds will shift to Ethereum and its surrounding cryptocurrencies to trigger the next-level crypto ecosystem explosion.
On the data front, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $2.17 billion last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $855 million, with the weekly net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs reaching a historical high, and the trend shows signs of continuation. On-chain data shows that the activity level of the Ethereum ecosystem over the weekend has reached a new high in nearly six months, objectively maintaining Uncle's judgment from last week that Ethereum will take over Bitcoin and lead to a surge; this trend may arrive earlier than expected.
The fundamentals of the market in the past six months, especially since Ethereum's poor performance over the last six months, have led Uncle to continuously emphasize a relatively optimistic long-term outlook for Ethereum. The continuous anomalies in indicator data have changed Uncle's judgment logic in the short term, and he continues to believe in his recent articles that perhaps Ethereum's market is about to come. If a timeline must be provided, it would be after the downward adjustment period before the December interest rate decision at three o'clock on Thursday morning, when the market will start again.
The Trump family has recently invested in non-stablecoin DeFi leading applications and RWA concept crypto assets. RWA has been discussed in the community before, and leading projects like ONDO still have huge potential even in our case of flipping positions. Additionally, the third state in the U.S. will officially launch legislation for a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' this week. In the long run, Bitcoin may gain greater momentum after a brief rest, continuing to explode and reaching a new bull market height beyond everyone's expectations.
The macro news this week focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at three o'clock on Thursday morning. The market generally expects a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, and based on known polls, there are basically no surprises. This means that whether it is a general decline in the intraday market or a slight panic caused by Bitcoin's rise and fall, they are both periods of market adjustment before the data is released. If we do not consider the potential war risks in the next couple of days, the intraday pullback or mid-term fluctuations will last at most 48 hours before stopping.
So in a bull market cycle, all unnecessary panic-induced downward trends are psychological wars induced by market manipulators to make you give up your chips. It is particularly important to do necessary stop-losses while respecting the market and to ignore the disturbances of short-term market emotions. The reason we are still holding on in this market is that we believe in the power of the cycle.
BTC: In terms of Bitcoin operations, let it remain quiet for now. Currently, the trend continues to rise sharply, and the difficulty of breaking through multiple levels is very high; it is also not meaningful for retail investors. The market fundamentals lean towards capital overflow after high-level adjustments. Considering the macro perspective of the bull market cycle, Bitcoin's current market high and the current price are certainly not far apart. The essence of the market still lies in the volatility of altcoins led by Ethereum during Bitcoin's adjustment period.
ETH: Ethereum has achieved a technical breakthrough on the daily chart, and a golden cross pattern may form soon. If the funds for Ethereum spot ETFs continue to be strong, the short-term trend will be established, and reaching a new high will be without suspense. Currently, the trend for Ethereum looks bullish!
Altcoins have indeed taken a big hit today, with AI leading the decline after a brief strong performance, and Solana series memes have also been continuously weak recently. Technically, I do not believe the altcoin market has ended. Uncle tends to think that after a short-term adjustment, the market will gather strength for a stronger rebound. For example, Doge is currently around 0.4, with a single position of tens of millions in long positions still hanging in the air, and bullish chips continue to accumulate. Without an effective leverage liquidation-like downturn as seen today, it will be difficult for the market to experience a new high with explosive potential.
Other altcoins, discuss in the comments.
The fear and greed index is at 83 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and hoard spot assets!
