[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on December 16, 2024 (Monday)

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The National Financial System Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 13. He Lifeng stated at the conference that it is necessary to give full play to the role of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, promote the expansion and efficiency of the "white list" projects, consolidate the momentum of the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, resolutely fight the battle to ensure the delivery of houses, and accelerate the construction of a financial service system that matches the new model of real estate development.
Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that a "combination punch" of macroeconomic policy coordination and cooperation should be launched to create a suitable liquidity environment for government bond issuance, increase treasury bond trading operations, help more proactive fiscal policies to better demonstrate their effectiveness, and jointly support stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure.
According to the data from the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2024 was 29.4 trillion yuan, 4.24 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 17.1 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 311.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In the first eleven months, the net cash injection was 1.07 trillion yuan.
The National Development and Reform Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 13 to study and deploy key development and reform tasks for 2025. The conference emphasized the need to promote the implementation of further comprehensive reform measures. Focus on key areas and key links to carry out key reforms. Focus on building a unified national market and revise and issue a new version of the negative list for market access.
Data released by the Ministry of Commerce show that since the beginning of this year, the overall sales of related products under the old-for-new policy for consumer goods have exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Among them, the old-for-new policy for cars has driven the sales of passenger cars to exceed 5.2 million units, the old-for-new policy for home appliances has driven the sales of eight major categories of products to exceed 49 million units; the "renewal" policy for home decoration kitchens and bathrooms has driven the sales of related products to exceed 51 million units; the old-for-new policy for electric bicycles has driven the sales of new cars to nearly 900,000 units.
Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that as of December 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 2384.40 points, up 127.94 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index was 1486.06 points, up 1.4%.
On December 14, Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over a meeting of the Party Committee (expanded). The meeting emphasized that we must resolutely implement the important requirements of "stabilizing the property and stock markets", enhance the foresight and initiative of market monitoring, early warning and response, strengthen the joint supervision of domestic and foreign, on-site and off-site, and futures and spot, strengthen the targeted monitoring and supervision of margin trading, over-the-counter derivatives, quantitative trading, etc., accelerate the implementation of incremental policies, continue to make good use of monetary policy tools to stabilize the market, strengthen and improve market expectation management, focus on stabilizing funds, leverage, and expectations, and effectively maintain the stability of the capital market.
At the 2024-2025 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in charge of daily work and director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, said that China's GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year, and its contribution to global economic growth will be close to 30%; employment and prices will remain stable, the balance of international payments will be basically balanced, and the country's foreign exchange reserves will remain above US$3.2 trillion.
According to CCTV, Israel learned on the 15th local time that the exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas for detained persons is likely to be completed before the evening of December 25. However, according to Israeli media, the current negotiations are deadlocked due to the number of persons released in some agreements. The number of persons released by Hamas is far lower than Israel's requirements, and Israel is unwilling to make concessions.
Global futures market changes
Domestic commodity futures closed generally down at night trading, with most energy and chemical products falling, glass down 4.03%, soda down 2.73%, LPG down 1.28%, PVC down 1.05%, crude oil up 2.01%, and low-sulfur fuel oil up nearly 1%. Black series fell across the board, coking coal down 2.05%, coke down 1.97%. Most agricultural products fell, soybean down 1.01%, sugar down nearly 1%, palm oil up 1.25%. Most base metals fell, Shanghai nickel down 2.4%, Shanghai tin down 1.62%, Shanghai lead down 0.69%, Shanghai copper down 0.51%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.22%, Shanghai zinc up 0.25%. Shanghai gold fell 0.9%, Shanghai silver fell 1.36%.
International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.61% to $2,665.9 per ounce, up 0.24% for the week, and COMEX silver futures down 1.96% to $31 per ounce, down 1.86% for the week.
International oil prices rose across the board. The January 2025 contract of U.S. oil rose 1.53% to $71.09 per barrel, up 5.79% for the week; the February 2025 contract of Brent oil rose 1.29% to $74.36 per barrel, up 4.56% for the week.
London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures down 0.38% to $9,056.5/ton, down 0.72% for the week; LME zinc futures up 0.47% to $3,089.5/ton, up 0.59% for the week; LME nickel futures down 1.97% to $15,850/ton, down 1.23% for the week; LME aluminum futures up 0.6% to $2,615/ton, up 0.44% for the week; LME tin futures down 1.72% to $29,025/ton, down 0.43% for the week; LME lead futures up 0.4% to $2,013.5/ton, down 2.8% for the week.
The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.7% to 988.75 cents per bushel, down 0.5% for the week; corn futures fell 0.23% to 442.5 cents per bushel, up 0.57% for the week; wheat futures fell 1.16% to 552 cents per bushel, down 0.94% for the week.
Black hot news
The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that it has agreed to China Storage Development Co., Ltd. to increase the storage point for hot-rolled coil futures, with an approved storage capacity of 30,000 tons of hot-rolled coil, with 15,000 tons in the first phase, and no regional premiums or discounts.
According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in early December, the social inventory of five major steel varieties in 21 cities was 6.85 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month, up 0.3%, and the inventory fluctuated at a low level; it decreased by 440,000 tons from the beginning of the year, down 6.0%; it decreased by 520,000 tons from the same period last year, down 7.1%. Among them, the inventory of rebar was 2.77 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month, down 0.4%, and the inventory turned from rising to falling; it decreased by 280,000 tons from the beginning of the year, down 9.2%; it decreased by 130,000 tons from the same period last year, down 4.5%.
On December 12, Sichuan Vanadium Titanium Steel Industry Association held a symposium on the steel market in Southwest China in Chengdu. Participating enterprises believed that as winter approaches, the demand for steel weakens, and steel mills should adhere to the principle of "three determinations and three don'ts", increase production cuts, ensure supply and demand balance, strengthen regional self-discipline, control sales channels, and maintain the smooth operation of the regional market.
According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, iron ore exports from Port Hedland increased to 48.755 million tons in November, compared with 45.5781 million tons in October. Port Hedland exported 39.9618 million tons of iron ore to China in November, compared with 39.2886 million tons in October. Port Hedland exported 83,000 tons of manganese ore in November, compared with 102,000 tons in October. Port Hedland exported 0 tons of manganese ore to China in November, compared with 73,000 tons in October.
According to Mysteel's survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.55%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from last week and an increase of 2.24 percentage points from last year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3247 million tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from last week and an increase of 56,100 tons from last year. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 150.6737 million tons, an increase of 307,800 tons from last week, and the average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 3.3713 million tons, an increase of 137,600 tons from last week.
According to Mysteel, the tender price of Hesteel 75B ferrosilicon in December was 6,600 yuan/ton, and the price in November was 6,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous round. The price in December 2023 will be 7,100 yuan/ton. The tender quantity of Hesteel 75B ferrosilicon in December was 2,141 tons, and the tender quantity in November was 1,500 tons, an increase of 641 tons from the previous round.
On December 15, the 2025 National Energy Work Conference was held in Beijing. The conference emphasized the need to strengthen bottom-line thinking and strategic determination, make every effort to complete the energy supply task, give full play to the bottom-line guarantee role of coal and coal-fired power, promote oil and gas reserves and production, strengthen energy reserve capacity building, and continuously promote the construction of a monitoring and early warning system.
According to the data from Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 6.4204 million tons, a decrease of 175,100 tons (-2.65%) from the previous week. The total construction steel inventory this week was 2.9464 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons (-2.30%) from the previous week. The total hot-rolled coil inventory this week was 1.9490 million tons, a decrease of 76,600 tons (-3.78%) from the previous week.
Hot news on agricultural products
​1. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024, the total grain output in China will be 706.5 million tons (141.3 billion jin), an increase of 11.09 million tons (22.2 billion jin) from 2023, an increase of 1.6%. After being stable at more than 1.3 trillion jin for 9 consecutive years, it has reached a new level of 1.4 trillion jin for the first time. Among them, the soybean planting area is 155 million mu, a decrease of 2.232 million mu from the previous year, a decrease of 1.4%. The planting area has remained stable at more than 150 million mu for three consecutive years; the yield is 133.3 kg/mu, an increase of 0.7 kg from the previous year, an increase of 0.5%; the output is 41.3 billion jin, a decrease of 390 million jin from the previous year, a decrease of 0.9%.
The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities said that the increase in India's palm oil import tariffs poses a temporary challenge to Malaysia's exports. Such tariff adjustments are usually short-term and have little long-term impact. If necessary, Malaysia can also consider exempting crude palm oil export tariffs as a long-term measure to maintain competitiveness.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said that Malaysia's palm oil production will fall for the fourth consecutive month as heavy rains affected harvesting. The reduction in Malaysia's palm oil production will lead to slower inventory growth and further push up palm oil futures prices, which are close to their highest level in about 2 and a half years. Under normal circumstances, crude palm oil production is expected to fall by 5% to 8%. However, if severe floods continue, the decline may reach 10% to 20%.
According to Wind data, as of the week of December 13, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 132.52 yuan/head, and on December 6 it was a profit of 172.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 95.65 yuan/head, and on December 6 it was a loss of 47.1 yuan/head.
Mysteel's nationwide dynamic survey of all-sample oil mills shows that in the 50th week (December 7 to December 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.8662 million tons, and the operating rate was 53%, which was 92,300 tons higher than expected.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of December 4, the national live pig price was 16.72 yuan/kg, down 1.30% from November 27; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.16 yuan/kg, down 1.82% from November 27; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 7.74, up 0.52% from November 27.
Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canada's canola exports fell 27.5% to 140,200 tons in the week ending December 8, compared with 193,400 tons in the previous week. Commercial canola stocks were 1.333 million tons.
JPMorgan Chase maintains a neutral to cautiously constructive outlook for ICE No. 2 cotton futures, and expects the average price to be 75 cents per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025. JPMorgan Chase expects that the agricultural product price environment will be more volatile in 2025-2026, especially for markets with US trade risk exposure.
Data from shipping research agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 to 15 were 671,454 tons, a decrease of 9.8% from 713,182 tons exported in the same period last month.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
CSRC announced that it has recently approved the registration of bottle flake options at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. CSRC will urge Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to make all preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of bottle flake options.
On December 13, local time, according to a document released by the Russian Legal Information Portal, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an order to extend the special economic measures enacted in response to Western countries' price limits on Russian oil and petroleum products until June 30, 2025. Since the decree came into effect on February 1, 2023, the validity period of the measures has been extended several times.
An armed conflict broke out around an oil refinery in Zawiya, Libya, in the early hours of the morning on the 15th, which caused a fire in the refinery. No detailed report on the losses has been received so far. The Libyan National Oil Corporation calls on relevant institutions and parties to take responsibility and take action to stop the conflict as soon as possible.
Metal Hot News
CSRC announced that recently, CSRC approved the registration of polysilicon futures and options of Guangzhou Futures Exchange. CSRC will urge Guangzhou Futures Exchange to make all preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of polysilicon futures and options.
Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that copper inventories decreased by 13,199 tons, aluminum inventories decreased by 9,875 tons, zinc inventories decreased by 2,317 tons, lead inventories increased by 3,984 tons, nickel inventories increased by 594 tons, and tin inventories increased by 69 tons last week.
Data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia showed that Port Hedland exported 111,996 tons of spodumene concentrate in November, compared with 114,869 tons in October. Port Hedland exported 76,110 tons to China in November, compared with 109,127 tons in October.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country's photovoltaic industry will operate smoothly from January to October 2024. According to the information of photovoltaic industry standard announcement companies and the calculation of industry associations, the national photovoltaic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules have increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the export volume of photovoltaic batteries has increased by more than 40%.
According to SMM, the natural gas supply to Alcoa's Pinjarra alumina refinery (4.7 million tons/year) in Australia has been unexpectedly interrupted, resulting in power outages and a large amount of alkali liquid leakage at the plant. It is estimated that it will take 7-10 days to resume full-load production.
According to SMM's survey, the weekly output of Xinjiang sample silicon enterprises is 20,540 tons, and the weekly operating rate is 61%, which is slightly lower than last week. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises is 3,985 tons, and the weekly operating rate is 46%, which is slightly lower than last week. The weekly output of Sichuan sample silicon enterprises is 1,290 tons, and the weekly operating rate is 20%, which is slightly lower than last week.
Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that polysilicon futures contracts will be listed for trading from December 26, 2024 (Thursday). The first batch of listed contracts are PS2506, PS2507, PS2508, PS2509, PS2510, PS2511 and PS2512. On the first day of listing, the trading margin level of polysilicon futures contracts is 9% of the contract value, and the price limit is 14% of the listing base price. The transaction fee of polysilicon futures contracts is one ten-thousandth of the transaction amount.
Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!
The pattern of caustic soda destocking has shifted to accumulation, is there still enough room for downward movement?
Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that as an important factor supporting the previous caustic soda price, there is a risk of alumina prices falling from high levels, which to a certain extent suppresses the caustic soda quotation. At present, the market's winter environmental protection control of alumina has certain restrictions on supply. Viscose staple fiber production is running at a high level, and textile and printing and dyeing production is stable at the average of previous years. Non-aluminum downstream has not changed much, and will also be affected by environmental protection in the future and will reduce production. There is an expectation that caustic soda demand will weaken. After the caustic soda price fell, the profits of chlor-alkali enterprises fell slightly, but were still above the horizontal line. With the resumption of maintenance, the operating rate was revised upward, and the output remained at a high level in the same period of previous years. Recently, with the recovery of production and the weakening of demand, caustic soda has shifted from destocking to accumulating inventory, with both downward space and downward drive.
Oil and fat market outlook: How should oil and fat futures be positioned in 2025?
CITIC Securities Futures analysis pointed out that the core contradictions in the oil and fat market in 2025 will continue to focus on the supply side. The supply and price of soybeans in North and South America, the recovery of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the progress of anti-dumping of rapeseed in Canada, and the import of rapeseed oil in China may have a greater impact on the prices of corresponding varieties. In addition, potential changes in the biofuel policies of the United States and Indonesia also increase the influence of the demand side on prices. In terms of soybean oil, if there are no weather problems, the discount in South America will tend to be under pressure or drag down the soybean oil futures price in the next one or two months, and short selling at highs will be the main operation in the short and medium term. In terms of palm oil, it is expected that the palm oil futures price in 2024/25 will tend to rise first and then fall. Generally speaking, P05 will mainly buy on pullbacks, and P09 will mainly sell on highs. In terms of rapeseed oil, the emotional changes caused by various policy speculations may cause the futures price to fluctuate upward, but the abundant supply on the real side is expected to restrict the room for futures prices to rise, and unilateral short selling will be the main operation.
A look at this week's important futures data and events
At 09:30 on December 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that in October 2024, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the month-on-month decline in commercial housing sales prices in various cities narrowed or turned to increase, and the year-on-year decline stabilized, and the real estate market expectations further improved.
At 10:00 on December 16, China's November industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods were released. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the main economic indicators rebounded significantly in October. Pay attention to the changes in economic indicators in November.
December 16th is to be determined, SPPOMA Malaysian palm oil production forecast from December 1st to 15th. Previous data showed that from December 1st to 10th, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 12.89%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.57%, and output decreased by 15.89%. We will pay attention to whether Malaysian palm oil can maintain its production reduction trend.
At 01:00 on December 17, the US NOPA soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory data for November. According to analysts' estimates, the US soybean crushing volume in November is expected to be 196.713 million bushels, a decrease from October data, and the estimated soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.123 billion pounds, an increase from October data. Pay attention to whether this data will exceed expectations.
At 21:30 on December 17, the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in November. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in October was 0.4%. Traders cut their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in 2025, reducing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in December to about 50%.
December 18th is to be determined. WBMS will release the October global metal supply and demand report. Previously, in September, the global WBMS nickel market had a supply surplus of 2,800 tons, the primary aluminum supply had an oversupply of 13,500 tons, and the copper supply was in short supply of 160,500 tons. We will pay attention to the changes in supply and demand this time.
At 3:00 on December 19, the US Federal Reserve will decide on its interest rate from December 18 to December 18. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 22.3%.
At 3:30 am on December 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. Powell previously said that the Fed could be "a little more cautious" on the issue of interest rate cuts because the US economy is "in very good shape." Powell's speech may provide more clues about the future path of monetary policy.
At 21:30 on December 19, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was released. The preliminary data released by the United States previously showed that the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was the same as the initial value, at 2.8%, and the growth rate slowed down from 3% in the second quarter. However, the GDP report still shows that the resilience of the US economy is amazing.
At 3:30 on December 20, NYMEX New York crude oil January futures were affected by the transfer of positions and the last transaction on the floor was completed at 3:30 on December 20, and the last transaction on the electronic disk was completed at 6:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of the expiration and month change of the trading venue to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of the US oil contract on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.
At 09:00 on December 20, China’s one-year and five-year loan market benchmark rates for December 20 will be announced.
December 20 (tbd), ITS/AmSpec/SGS will announce Malaysia's palm oil export data from December 1 to 20. The previous MPOB report showed that palm oil exports in November decreased by 14.74% month-on-month, and the export data in early December continued to decline. Pay attention to the actual changes in this data.
On December 20, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) will announce the global and Chinese primary aluminum production in November. Previous data showed that global primary aluminum production in October was 6.221 million tons, and China's primary aluminum production was 3.72 million tons, both of which increased compared with September data. We will pay attention to whether the November data can continue to rise.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on December 16, 2024 (Monday)

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