Bitcoin has made a small upward push. Staying above 97400-98400 is considered strong. If this is the first wave, the next surge will be even more violent than this one. Personally, I believe Bitcoin doesn't need a violent surge; a violent surge is too extreme, making altcoins hesitant to rise. It just needs to move up gradually, giving altcoins a chance to distribute. For those saying it's at a peak, you can check the market to see what the altcoins look like in terms of shape and structure. I don't believe that the market makers can complete distribution in such a shape.
I think the biggest problem with altcoins right now is that there hasn't been a strong narrative that emerges, which I often refer to as the main storyline. The current altcoin market has completed the first phase, filling the gaps, pulling up the undervalued ones, and averaging the overall market holding costs upwards. The next phase will involve finding the main storyline or the bull market engine; a group of altcoins will lead the overall altcoin market forward, similar to last round's $UNI and $DOT. In my view, VC and value coins will become the bull market engine and seek revenge! 1. Chip structure: The market has finished cleaning up the floating chips for VC and value coins. The vision of the meme supercycle has led most people to start allocating towards memes, abandoning value coins. Additionally, after this week's massive market fluctuations in altcoins, funds have completed a shift during the pullback, and moving forward will be about pulling the lightest load and telling the most inflated stories. 2. Market narrative: Whether it’s the DeFi concept supported by Trump in the U.S., the capital backed by BlackRock, or the new major players from web2 entering the space, they will consider “margin of safety.” Projects that have withstood the test of time and carry significant funds are necessary conditions. I do not deny the meme supercycle, but the order is crucial. In past bull markets, value led, and meme followed; this time, it may be meme leading, value in the middle, and meme finishing. 3. Fundamentals: DeFi TVL still has 30% to reach the peak of the last cycle, and this is without a significant rise in Ethereum as the underlying asset. The number of active addresses on the Solana chain continues to reach new highs. Both the number of players and funds present an optimistic outlook, which is why people are willing to pay, taking high positions. 4. Stakeholders: Big players want to make money and, taking advantage of the FOMO, won't hesitate to take profits. Moreover, the statement “this is the last controllable bull market” is not just something retail investors believe; institutions, exchanges, and project parties will all try their best to make money. This is basic market knowledge. 5. Choosing against the market mainstream is a choice that leads to success. While not sufficient, it is a necessary condition. This is the value coin FUD from the past six months: AAVE at the bottom has quadrupled to a market cap of 5.5 billion, Eigen has doubled its FDV to 8.6 billion, the new RWA leader usual has tripled its FDV to 3 billion in two weeks, and the BN MegaDrop, like the first phase project BB, has seen a 40% drop within a day. You will find that in a bull market, liquidity, market cap size, and the distinction between old and new coins are not issues.
