#美降息25个基点预期升温 #BTC重回关键位置后走势 #美联储12月降息预期上升 #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #比特币战略储备

Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has become the focus of investor attention, with the current probability of a rate cut reaching 96.4%, which is almost a consensus in the market.

This probability indicates that investors strongly expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate from the current 450-475 bps to 425-450 bps at the December meeting.

Why does the market have a strong consensus on a rate cut?

Trend of easing inflation:

In recent months, inflation data in the United States (such as CPI and core PCE) has begun to slow down, with hopes of approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

If inflation expectations are further suppressed, the Federal Reserve will adjust monetary policy to avoid the pressure of high interest rates on economic growth.

Demand for a relaxed financial environment:

Current high interest rates have already placed significant pressure on corporate financing, the real estate market, and consumer credit demand.

To alleviate the tension in financial markets and support economic recovery, the Federal Reserve is more inclined to choose rate cuts as a tool for adjustment.

From the perspective of BTC market prices and Nasdaq market behavior, the vast majority of investors have already accounted for the expectation of a rate cut. If this expectation fails, it may lead to significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.