Macroeconomic Interpretation: Recently, both the global financial market and the cryptocurrency market have exhibited complex dynamic changes, from traditional #黄金 reserve accumulation to #美股 market profit expectations, and to the cryptocurrency, especially #BTC☀ cycle analysis, multiple fields are releasing different signals. Our aim this time is to conduct an in-depth discussion of the current state and future trends of the global financial market and cryptocurrency market.
1. The People's Bank of China Resumes Accumulating Gold: Diversification of Reserves and Rising Gold Prices
The People's Bank of China has released the latest data, resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus, a move that has attracted widespread attention in the international financial market. Data shows that as of the end of November, the People's Bank of China's gold reserves stood at 72.96 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous month. Since November 2022, the People's Bank of China has been continuously buying gold, pausing only in April this year, accumulating a total of 10.16 million ounces over 18 months. What is the reason behind this move? What signal does it send?
The World Gold Council points out that the People's Bank of China led gold demand in the first quarter of this year and became the largest gold buyer in 2023. The resumption of purchases indicates that even with gold prices at historical highs, the People's Bank of China is still keen on diversifying its reserves and preventing currency devaluation. The reasons behind the People's Bank of China's increase in gold holdings include optimizing the structure of international reserves and increasing the proportion of gold reserves; on the other hand, gold, as a widely accepted ultimate means of payment globally, can enhance the credit of sovereign currency and create favorable conditions for cautiously advancing the internationalization of the renminbi.
Additionally, changes in geopolitical risks have also impacted gold prices. The Syrian opposition took control of the capital Damascus, and President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, making the situation in the Middle East more chaotic, which also drove up gold prices. Spot gold rose by 0.46% to $2645.04 per ounce. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the precious metals sector performed actively, with stocks like Hunan Gold and Xiaocheng Technology seeing significant gains.
2. U.S. Stock Market: Earnings Growth and Valuation Correction
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market is also undergoing complex changes. With the conclusion of the U.S. elections and the ongoing warming of Trump trades, the U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs. However, from a performance perspective, the overall growth of the U.S. stock market is dragged down by cyclical industries, and the market's profit consensus expectations are also being adjusted downward. Nevertheless, the U.S. stock market has not stopped; instead, it repeatedly reaches new highs, with the strength of different sectors running counter to performance conditions, as the cyclical style of the Dow Jones even briefly outperformed the growth style of the Nasdaq.
The main reason lies in the rise of Trump trades after the election and the easing of financial conditions following rate cuts, which led to a quicker recovery in interest-sensitive real estate and investment sectors. Additionally, the market has also priced in more favorable growth expectations post-Trump's election. However, at this point, U.S. stock valuations (94% historical percentile since 1990) and sentiment (risk premium at 28% historical percentile since 1990) are at high levels, raising concerns about future space.
The key to assessing the future space of the U.S. stock market still lies in profits, and the key to profits is primarily whether the technology sector can sustain growth and whether cyclical sectors can restart. Although the technology sector's growth rate is slowing, 'software' is outperforming 'hardware,' with media entertainment and software service profits still on the rise. Cyclical sectors such as finance and energy benefit from Trump's proposed tax cuts, the rate-cutting cycle, and financial deregulation.
Combining the growth path of the U.S. itself and the growth expectations of overseas income, it is estimated that the profit growth of U.S. stocks in 2025 may reach 10%, slightly higher than this year's 9%. However, the U.S. stock market's space is also constrained by the limited expansion space for further valuations. It is expected that the reasonable central level of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will be around 3.8% to 4%, with relatively limited space for the risk premium to decline further. Therefore, the U.S. stock market may face short-term correction pressure, but still has long-term growth potential.
3. Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: New Capital Inflows and Local Peaks
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's cycle analysis is also receiving much attention. By analyzing Bitcoin's on-chain data, we can determine where we stand in this cycle.
#长期持有者 (Smart Money) is currently selling Bitcoin, which is not surprising given that Bitcoin rose 45% last month, and has increased by 600% from the cycle's low point. 69% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders, and as the bull market continues, we expect to see long-term holders transfer their tokens to short-term holders.
Short-term holders are new entrants to the market, and this group typically trends upward during bull markets. Currently, 16.6% of Bitcoin supply is held by short-term holders, and with new capital inflows, more new funds may flow into the Bitcoin market in the future.
#交易所余额 's decline also indicates an abnormal phenomenon, as Bitcoin has not entered exchanges in large quantities with rising prices, but rather left exchanges, possibly existing in self-custody forms. Additionally, the funding rate in the futures market is also at a low level, indicating that leverage is not high and the market structure is relatively robust.
The MVRV Z-Score helps us understand the relationship between Bitcoin's current market value and its 'realized value.' The current MVRV is 3.17, indicating that the average holder has an unrealized profit of 217%. Historical data shows that both long-term and short-term holders' MVRV may rise before the end of this cycle.
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator also indicates that the shorter 111-day moving average has not yet shown a parabolic trend, suggesting a potential sharp rise and fall at any time. Although the market has entered an 'extreme greed' phase, there are still subtle differences to explore. For instance, the viewership of crypto YouTube channels is still about half of what it was at the peak of the last cycle, and the ranking of the Coinbase App is also lower than in the previous cycle.
Finally, although there are some signs of prosperity (such as the rise of meme coins), more extreme greed is likely to come. The expectation of volatility is human nature, and investors need to remain vigilant.
4. Conclusion and Outlook
From the above analysis, we can see that the global financial market and cryptocurrency market are experiencing complex changes. The People's Bank of China has resumed gold purchases, achieving reserve diversification and driving up gold prices; the U.S. stock market is seeking balance between earnings growth and valuation correction; the Bitcoin market is fluctuating between new capital inflows and local peaks. For the future, we have reason to believe that with the continuous changes in the global economic environment and ongoing policy adjustments, these markets will encounter new opportunities and challenges. For investors, it is important to maintain a cautious and rational attitude, closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes to formulate reasonable investment strategies.
BTC Data Analysis:
Data shows that long-term holders have seen a noticeable decline since early October this year. Currently, they account for about 69% of the total supply, which is consistent with previously discussed points. Long-term holders and short-term holders are currently in a stage of exchanging chips. If we reference the corresponding holding ratios from the previous two bull markets, we are approaching historical values—specifically, in 2021 and 2017, about 58% and 51% of the circulating supply were held by long-term holders when BTC prices peaked. It is expected that this round, due to ETF funding involvement, will slightly raise the ratio, as ETFs roughly account for 5.57% of the supply. Therefore, if the long-term holding ratio falls below 65%, we should adopt a conservative attitude towards the market.
