Daily share
Today I want to talk about how to control the rhythm of the bull market.
The bull market is here, and many coins will take off. Today this one rises, tomorrow that one rises. In reality, it is very difficult for us to perfectly catch all coins. For instance, some of our friends have joined certain communities where the group leader recommends more than seven or eight coins a day. Can you buy them all? Our funds are actually limited, not infinite ammunition. Once we buy a certain coin, you need to wait for some time, right? The fast ones may rise right after buying, while the slower ones may take five to six days or more. The waiting time actually occupies our funds. We simply cannot use limited capital to buy all the coins that are starting to rise.
Some friends might say, can I grasp the rhythm of sector rotation? Today sector A rotates, I buy in. After it takes off and seems good, I sell, then buy into sector B. When sector B starts, I wait until it seems good to sell again and then buy into sector C. Wouldn't this rapidly compound my capital?
Many people idealize sector rotations too much. Not to mention whether you can perfectly keep up with the market's rotation rhythm, just one sector's rise duration is actually unknown in advance. Moreover, when a certain sector takes off, other coins won't just stand by waiting for you to pull your funds out to buy in. For example, in the past 20 days, the main strong performers have been XRP, ADA, XLM, and other US-compliant coins. While these coins are rising, other coins are also rising, rather than just consolidating.
So how should we operate better?
1. Choose 1-2 or two to three mid-to-long term potential coins that you are optimistic about. It is not recommended to pick those coins that have a one-off surge. What is a one-off surge? It means a surge for one or two days, and then a long period of consolidation or a quick drop. Then the next time it takes off, it's again a surge for one or two days, followed by continued long-term consolidation or decline. Such coins have very poor appreciation and preservation effects and are only suitable for short-term trading. Mid-to-long-term coins should not be too many, as that would disperse funds.
2. For mid-to-long term coins, appropriately increase or decrease positions in suitable market conditions, rather than holding them without action.
3. Reserve some funds specifically for short-term swing trading. For example, the RSR, TRB, LUNA we recommended recently in our community’s VIP section, these short-term swings have gained good profits.
In short, in actual operations, keep a clear hierarchy. Do not use all your funds for guerrilla trading—buying here and there, and in the end, during the bull market, you cannot even achieve 3-5 times your initial capital. What’s the point of that? To make big money in a bull market, a complete set of rhythm control is necessary. Do not be blinded by various coins that surge in the short term, losing your sense of proportion.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this should only be taken as a reference.
1H：
For Bitcoin at these two positions, last night's rebound did not break above 103000, and it still tends to undergo a 4-hour level pullback. The first 1-hour pullback focuses on around 90,000. However, there are also some variables in the short-term market. Looking at the daily MACD, is it possible to hit a new high again, and then the daily forms a MACD top divergence, starting a 4-hour pullback? This situation is also possible. But I tend to think that the probability of directly undergoing a 4-hour pullback is slightly higher.
In any case, the current unilateral trend of Bitcoin's rise is basically over. It will shift from a unilateral rise to a consolidation phase, completing a 4-hour level pullback during the consolidation. This is a potential trend state that may be realized in the next half month or so.
After the 4-hour pullback is nearly over, there will be a new 4-hour level rise that needs to unfold, and at that time, it may again experience a small unilateral rise, targeting around 120,000.
15M：
15-minute level, this is more of a choppy consolidation. If it does not break through 103000, we are still looking at a 15-minute level drop back to around 90500. A re-break above 103000 would have the potential to extend further, but the expectation above is also that it won't go far and will need to come down.
ETH
Ethereum here is indeed as expected last night, surging up another 4000, peaking at 4087. It is currently still in a potential divergence phase, and there is a probability of ending the 4-hour upward trend and experiencing a 4-hour level pullback.
Currently observing the short term. If it drops below 3900, then we need to look for a 1-hour level pullback. Based on the strength of the 1-hour pullback, we can consider whether it is a 4-hour pullback.
Trend direction
Weekly level: direction is up, currently in a new weekly level rise, with an overall target looking above 150,000.
Daily level: direction is up, with an expected rise to around 120,000.
4-hour level: direction is down. It is very likely that the 4-hour level rebound has already ended here, and we need to look for a pullback soon.
1-hour level: direction is down, currently in a 1-hour level decline, and it is expected to pull back near 90000.
15-minute level: direction is up or consolidating. In the short term, as long as it does not break above 103000, there is still a possibility of pulling back down again.
