The S&P 500 just finished its best performing month in a year and is expected to rise 30% in 2024.

Although the gains in US stocks have exceeded the most optimistic predictions released at the end of 2023, some professional market observers still believe that there is room for this bullish trend to continue before the New Year’s bell rings.

Scott Rubner from Goldman Sachs stated in a report to clients last week that the S&P 500 could reach 6200 points by the end of December.

Famous Wall Street bull, Tom Lee of Fundstrat, is more optimistic: he expects the index may rise to 6300 points, although it may face some bumps along the way.

Lee was one of the first strategists on Wall Street to be bullish on stocks during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic and has accurately predicted the rise of US stocks over the past year, earning him the title of 'Wall Street Oracle'.

Lee said in a report shared with MarketWatch: "In the short term, we may enter a 'hesitation range', but we advise investors to buy on dips during this period."

Lee candidly admits there are obstacles ahead. This Friday's employment report, next week's inflation data, and the Fed's interest rate decision later this month will bring significant uncertainty.

However, history shows that US stocks have a strong upward trend in December. According to analysis by Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3% increase in the last month of each year since 1928.

More importantly, the index has closed with a bullish candle in December 74% of the time — making it the month with the highest win rate of all months.

An indicator measuring investor sentiment shows that enthusiasm for US stocks has recently cooled. According to the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), only 37.1% of respondents expressed bullish sentiment, down from historical averages.

But Lee pointed out that this relatively pessimistic sentiment may actually be a bullish signal.

He said: "This is a contrarian bullish signal for me; the market has risen in the past two weeks while sentiment has turned more bearish, and that is a positive signal."

Lee added that if things do not go smoothly, the dual safety nets should help limit losses — the 'Fed put' and 'Trump put' should both help ensure that any market downturns can be quickly bought back.

"The Fed put" refers to the Fed taking action to protect investors from market turmoil. "The Trump put" refers to the incoming Trump administration viewing the stock market as a key barometer of success, and therefore taking measures to ensure its continued rise.

The annual 'Christmas rally' period may also help boost stock prices. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, pointed out that since 1950, the S&P 500 has had an 80% probability of rising during this period, which is higher than the average for all seven-day periods throughout the year.

According to forecasts for 2025 released over the past few weeks, Wall Street strategists expect US stocks to continue rising in 2025, although at a slower pace.

Professional asset management firms also seem to be pricing in more earnings. Data from Citigroup indicates that these specific investors have significantly reduced their bets against the S&P 500 in the futures market.

However, not everyone views the year-end sprint as a done deal. Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, noted that given the strong performance of the US stock market in 2024, some traders may be tempted to lock in some profits.

Given that the US stock market is currently very expensive relative to its fundamentals, professional fund managers may shift their funds to cheaper markets.

Miskin stated: "There may be some rebalancing effects in the market by the end of the year."

Additionally, Miskin sees a risk that Fed Chair Powell may signal a slowdown in interest rate cuts in 2025, which could disappoint investors.

Article reposted from: Jinshi Data