Hot topics of Master Chat:
Yesterday's market was really lively, especially the Korean market's big crash of 60,000, which was simply jaw-dropping. As of now, I personally believe that this wave of sharp decline is more caused by the selling of the local market caused by the panic of the Korean political situation, coupled with Upbit's system problems, and even the factor of serial liquidation cannot be ruled out.
What is worth thinking about is that behind this incident, there is actually a bigger question revealed: Is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset or a risky asset?
Judging from the price trend alone, Bitcoin is clearly a risky asset. If you don’t believe me, just look at the rise and fall, which is like a roller coaster. However, don’t forget Bitcoin’s global circulation ability, which really makes it a safe haven. After all, you can’t exchange Korean won for US dollars and circulate it around the world, right?
But the reaction of the Korean market is puzzling. Why would investors choose to sell their stocks first when the political situation is turbulent? Are they preparing to exchange won for dollars?
I think that the risk aversion ability of the cryptocurrency market is stronger than that of traditional currencies. For example, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the acceptance ability of Bitcoin and USDT is far better than that of currencies of various countries. As for why Korean investors choose to sell during the crisis? This is really hard to understand.
Although I still don’t understand this question, it is certain that this 30% plunge has caused widespread panic and brought about a chain reaction. It is precisely because of this that the market rebounded quickly. After all, the leeks are not used to such a fierce needle prick, and they began to fight back vigorously after the panic.
As for why the Korean market fell so hard, while the global market reacted less? There are actually several reasons: First, the difficulty of trading in the Korean won is higher than that of the US dollar. Second, this wave of crash lasted only 13 minutes, unlike the previous continuous selling wave.
Furthermore, the trading volume of the Korean market is relatively small and its influence is limited. Of course, if this flash crash occurred during the Asian trading hours, it might not be so small. Every time we say "opportunities and risks coexist", this really comes true every time, vividly reproduced!
Let’s take a look at the recent trend of Bitcoin. I personally feel that this week is a bit like a special week of needle-prick rebound, because the speeches of Federal Reserve officials continue to stimulate market fluctuations.
The early drop on Monday can actually be seen as a preemptive move by the market. According to my previous analysis, Bitcoin will pull back to the 93800-94666 range, which is relatively stable and has not been completely broken so far.
The 94000-94666 range has been used for several times. When 93800 was first touched, it rebounded and fell quickly. In the short term, below 93800 is a good support point, and low-long is the most reasonable layout at present.
Different from the unilateral decline, the rebound of each support level is relatively strong now. The lower the retracement, the stronger the rebound. The short-term fluctuation is large. If you don’t stop profit and stop loss in time, you may be trapped at a certain point. If the air force fails to stop profit in batches in time, it is also easy to be swallowed by the rebound after the needle.
As for the mid-term, it is difficult for the big cake to adjust to 85755 in one fell swoop, because the support around 9W is very strong. If the air force wants to make a profit of 10,000 points in the medium and long term, the difficulty of the pattern and the challenge of mentality are no easier than small-band operations.
Therefore, low-long is still the most reasonable strategy in the current market, and the game between risk and opportunity is still going on. At this point, don't forget that today's market is like leeks that have been cut. Sometimes, it is the great wisdom of trading to look at the mentality instead of the market.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 96750
Second resistance level: 98000
Support level reference:
First support level: 95000
Second support level: 93700
Today's suggestion:
Despite the sharp drop, the current rebound is strong. Therefore, from the perspective of yesterday's decline, we can now turn to the perspective of a rebound.
The market is still buying actively. Expect a retest of the highs and a reentry into the marked important rising channel. If the price falls below 94.7K~95K again, the downside risk will increase.
At this time, we should maintain the current position and gradually raise the bottom, and pay attention to the trend of the 20-day moving average to observe whether there is a resistance test of the rising channel. In today's operation, the rebound perspective can still be maintained in the short term, but if the big cake fails to enter the rising channel, we should pay attention to the trading volume and turn to short-term bearish.
It is not easy to enter the market during a sharp decline, so during the decline, it is best to observe the chart, wait for a rebound signal, and confirm whether the K-line stabilizes above the moving average before considering entering the market.
12.4 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 92800-93300-93550 range, you can buy light positions. If it falls back to 92450-91900 range, buy directly. Target: 95000-96750
Short entry position reference: No reference