The altcoin season index reached 82, indicating that the last strong altcoin season occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.

  • · The altcoin season has arrived, with more and more tokens outperforming BTC over the past 90 days.

  • · The upward momentum of altcoins still has greater growth potential, but analysts remain cautious.

· After strong developments in December, the highly anticipated altcoin season has arrived.

According to data from the Blockchain Center, the altcoin season index reading has reached a new high in 12 months, hitting 82, further confirming that this is a solid 'altcoin season' rather than Bitcoin [BTC].

The stocks with the largest gains - HBAR, XRP, DOGE

The index rose after significant gains from top tokens like Ripple [XRP], Hedera [HBAR], and Stellar [XLM], while Dogecoin [DOGE] outperformed the king coin.

In the past 90 days, HBAR has risen over 600%, while XLM and XRP followed closely with increases of 515% and 402%, respectively. However, Ethereum [ETH] and Binance [BNB] lag behind BTC.

The decline in Bitcoin (BTC.D) dominance accelerated the stunning rise of altcoins in November.

On November 21, BTC.D peaked at 60%, but has since fallen to 54%, allowing the altcoin sector to grow as capital shifts away from the king coin.

In fact, if historical trends continue, the upward momentum of altcoins may persist. As of the time of writing, OTHERS (which tracks the altcoin sector excluding the top 10 tokens) has risen over BTC in the past four weeks.

The ratio broke through the critical 50-day moving average (MA) but is still far from reaching the upper resistance level, which suppressed the rebounds seen in 2017 and 2021.

If history repeats itself, OTHERS/BTC may target the upper resistance level, allowing this sector to rise further. This scenario could occur if BTC's dominance remains lackluster.

However, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju warns that with the increase in ETF participants and BTC institutions, a historical capital rotation to altcoins may not happen.

  • "This altcoin season will not be as you expect. It will be strange and challenging. Only a few will win this game. Market sentiment is good, but there is not much new liquidity."

Nonetheless, analysts warn that a sell-off news event could occur during Trump's inauguration in January 2025. If so, it may be crucial to readjust risk management to preserve capital before the event.