While BTC is struggling to hold at $95,000, the U.S. has transferred 10,000 BTC to Coinbase, sparking concerns among investors.

The transfer of a large amount of previously seized Bitcoin assets to Coinbase may indicate that the U.S. intends to sell, and the market immediately reacted with the price of BTC opening high and then falling, dropping from a high of 97,356 to a low of 94,395. As of the time of writing, the price is still fluctuating around $95,000.

Data from crypto analytics firm Dune shows that the U.S. government currently holds 183,422 Bitcoins, worth over $17.6 billion. This accounts for about 0.93% of Bitcoin's total supply.

If the government decides to sell some assets, it could create significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, reminiscent of the sell-off following a large-scale transfer previously.

However, everything currently belongs to the operations of Biden's administration; with Trump's inauguration next month, everything will reverse.

Such actions may be curbed in 2025.

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to be inaugurated on January 20, and he has proposed a strategy that includes making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the United States.

This method would involve the government purchasing nearly 1 million BTC instead of selling its current holdings of BTC, and plans to use these assets to help reduce the country’s $36 trillion national debt.

This proposal was introduced in Congress by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis based on the "Bitcoin Bill" and has gained support from both parties.

With the recent leadership shift from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party and securing a majority in the House of Representatives, there is optimism that the bill may take effect in the second or third quarter of 2025.

Regarding the U.S. government's dumping of 10,000 BTC, on-chain data shows that this portion of BTC did not actually flow into the market, or rather, did not lead to a direct dump.

The timeline is organized as follows

1. At 00:34 yesterday, the U.S. government credited 10,000 BTC to Coinbase.

2. At 00:47 yesterday, the BTC was credited to the Coinbase hot wallet 3MqUP.

3. From 00:47 to 05:38 yesterday, 10,000 BTC was distributed to 21 new addresses, each receiving 498.445 BTC, and these addresses have not further transferred the tokens.

Comparing with the trading volume during the corresponding time period on Trading View Coinbase, the average trading volume during the spike was only 300 BTC for 15 minutes, and the trading volume situation during the rebound was similar —

That is, Coinbase did not have transactions matching the sell-off volume of 10,000 BTC, so it can be speculated that the possibilities for this operation are as follows: it has not been sold yet, and plans to distribute it in batches through OTC have been picked up by a certain institution, which did not flow into the secondary market.

The possibility of being picked up by other institutions via OTC is the greatest, after all, Sun Yuchen previously suggested that if the U.S. intends to sell more than 30,000 Bitcoins seized from the Silk Road market, he would be willing to take them privately.

For large BTC sales, at this stage, if they are indeed to be sold, it will depend on whether it is through the secondary market or OTC, based on the true purpose of the sale and what method can maximize profits.

A large-scale sell-off through the secondary market during a major bull market would inevitably raise suspicions of intentionally suppressing the price, in conjunction with Wall Street capital trying to wash out the weak hands holding assets below $100,000.

Indicators including ETF inflows are relatively good; BTC and ETH are almost still buying every day.

Overall, there is no need to panic; there are still many positive factors ahead, such as a 25 basis point rate cut on December 19, Trump's inauguration on January 20, and rumors that the U.S. Ethereum ETF may soon launch staking rewards features.

A significant correction, based on previous bull market cycles, should occur when BTC reaches around $150,000, resulting in a large correction of about 20%. A substantial correction will raise strong doubts about whether it is a short-term pullback or the beginning of a bear market.

It is clear that this situation has not yet occurred; it can be confirmed that this is only the beginning of the current bull market, and the climax is far from being reached, so just hold on tight.

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