BTC reached a peak of $99,588 a week ago, and after a week of volatility, it attempted to rise again to $98,130 yesterday but retreated with failure, continuing the pullback.
Attacking $100,000 is just a final step. Why hasn't it broken through yet? Will it break the previous high and exceed $100,000 in the last month of 2024?
In fact, BTC has surged from $70,000 to nearly $100,000, pulling the entire cryptocurrency market to a new height. BTC has successfully risen to the seventh largest asset in the world.
This gives altcoins a certain amount of growth space. The current consolidation also gives each altcoin project some time for market cap management.
When BTC's price is high, opportunities for altcoins will naturally rise. Large capital does not want retail investors to compete with them for BTC at least at this stage.
They hope to shake out some chips below $100,000, so they also need cooperation from altcoin project teams to create a small wave of wealth effect in altcoins first.
Retail investors, seeing BTC's price so high, should not let it drop from $100,000 to $16,000 in 2023. Aren't they standing at the summit? (This question has been raised by readers, possibly reflecting newcomers' views on $100,000.)
Since altcoins are still relatively cheap, mainly because there are more zeros and some coins have wealth effects, investing some funds in altcoins is just natural.
With the previous surge of Dogecoin and PEPE, followed by XRP breaking its historical high, altcoins may be about to start a wave.
XRP, an old coin, has increased by 400% in a month, quadrupling its value, surpassing SOL and BNB, and directly rising to third place behind ETH.
This is something no one expected. In fact, it had always been in third place, but in recent years it has been surpassed one by one due to the project team and SEC lawsuits and regulatory issues.
However, with the date of Trump's inauguration approaching, this is a major positive for XRP, as XRP actively participated in donations to Trump during the election.
XRP's recent surge in the past month may be mainly related to two pieces of news.
1. XRP old tree blooms anew, Ripple approved to issue stablecoin RLUSD, launching on December 4.
According to FOX Business, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) is expected to approve Ripple's issuance of its stablecoin RLUSD.
If approved, Ripple plans to officially launch RLUSD on December 4, which aims to meet customer demand for low-volatility digital currencies while promoting further development of cross-border payments and remittances.
Previously, Ripple also established the RLUSD advisory committee, whose members include former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, former JPMorgan executive David Puth, and Ripple co-founder and executive chairman Chris Larsen.
2. WisdomTree has registered the XRP ETF in Delaware.
FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett stated on social media that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered the XRP ETF in Delaware. I have confirmed with the company that this is a legitimate filing.
According to a report by Coingape, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart's latest report indicates that the approval decisions for altcoin ETFs such as SOL, XRP, LTC, and HBAR may extend until the end of 2025.
Unlike the already approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, these altcoins lack support from a regulated futures market like CME. Although WisdomTree and 21Shares have submitted XRP ETF applications, current regulations still do not allow their listing until market manipulation, custody, and other compliance issues are resolved.
Seyffart also stated that Trump's inauguration is expected to help resolve the XRP and SEC disputes, and the new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, possibly allowing ETF products to include staking features.
Another thing is that Grayscale has opened private placements for various tokens to qualified investors, including SOL, SUI, XRP, and 17 other tokens.
Stimulated by this series of good news, XRP has returned to the top three in market capitalization, welcoming a second spring.
Currently, older coins like ADA and XRP are leading the charge, and is a full altcoin season about to arrive?
The market is still primarily dominated by Bitcoin, and altcoins have not yet fully entered a strong dominant position, but the trend over the past 7 days is worth noting.
The altcoin season index has gradually risen from a low point on the 17th and significantly jumped to 28 on the 21st, indicating that market interest in altcoins is recovering.
This upward trend may mean that funds are gradually rotating from mainstream assets like Bitcoin into the altcoin sector.
Especially in the context of the strong performance of older altcoins like XRP and ADA recently, this trend may further strengthen.
If this trend can be sustained and continues to rise steadily over the next few weeks, perhaps the altcoin season may officially arrive.
Among the top 100 altcoins that have been active in the past three months, meme coins, with their high speculation and social drive, are still hard to shake from their market position in the short term.
The logic of investing in new coins rather than old ones may be different now, as retail investors prefer meme coins over large coins.
Among large coins, institutions and large funds do not have high return requirements, so they choose larger market cap assets. In fact, apart from BTC, the top 10 coins by market cap are all of interest to institutions.
Bitcoin has risen 130% so far this year, mainly driven by the results of the 2024 US presidential election and the halving event in April 2024.
Although Bitcoin's price has risen, its dominance is declining. On November 30, 2024, Bitcoin's dominance fell to 56.1%.
This indicates that Bitcoin investors are taking profits and rotating into altcoins. The altcoin season may be about to begin. If there is a recent pullback, coins like SOL, ETH, PEPE, and DOGE could be good for increasing positions. This round of market activity is far from over, and the peak of this cycle is still quite a distance away.
Remember not to frequently switch assets, and don't be busy with daily trading like a dog. We are here to make money, not to buy and sell for the thrill of it.
BTC breaking through $100,000 is just a step away, and it is likely to happen this month. The longer it consolidates at this position, once it breaks, it might soar to around $120,000. By then, it may be hard to see BTC under $100,000 again.
Cryptocurrency is not everything in life. Exercise more, love life, and enjoy your current work.
Once the coin layout is set, don't interfere with it. It needs time to grow, bloom, and bear fruit. Ultimately, just pick the fruit when it is ripe; there's no need to disturb it every day.
If you don't know where to focus your energy and time daily, then please listen to the advice of a Stanford PhD.
Stanford PhD Fred Krueger stated on X:
"Advice for the younger generation is to focus all energy on artificial intelligence while also investing savings in Bitcoin.
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