Overnight, US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.29%, the Nasdaq up 0.97%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.24%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index reached new historical highs again. The crypto market saw more declines than gains. Yesterday, Bitcoin's drop, linked with Ethereum and some altcoins, triggered panic in the entire market, causing many people to look for information and consult 'experts'. Of course, many were also cutting their losses. In fact, the ones cutting losses are mostly those who recently chased highs. If you had positioned yourself in advance, there is no need to panic; instead, it's an opportunity to add to your holdings. The coins that dropped significantly are mainly concentrated in the meme sector and governance tokens. There are various opinions on the current pullback, with some saying that Bitcoin is reluctant to break through the 100,000 USD mark, stating that 99588 USD is the historical peak. Others point to the Syrian civil war, tensions in the Middle East, and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as reasons. However, these are not the main factors. The biggest factor is the series of economic and financial data from the US coming out in December, which relates to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. However, this fluctuation can also be seen as a tool for whales and institutions to manipulate the market, and this volatile movement is also a precursor to sector rotation.
Bitcoin surged to around 98180 in the early morning of Monday but faced resistance and fell back. In the afternoon, it retraced to around 94836, stopped, and began to rebound. In the evening, a wave of increase brought Bitcoin back up to around 97400 before facing resistance again, falling back to around 94440, then rebounding to oscillate near 95000. According to the retracement space on the four-hour chart, the current retracement can still be viewed as a correction. The bottom of the last large bullish candle is the critical point for bulls. As long as it stays above this position, the market will maintain a strong consolidation pattern. From the current structure, the strong characteristics of the market are still evident, and the local retracement is also accumulating strength for the bulls. On the hourly chart, after a wave of retracement and consolidation, the market has digested the overbought pressure from the sub-chart indicators. The short-term trend has slightly slowed down and has entered a rebound recovery trend. Do not easily think that the short-term retracement during the trend consolidation phase signifies a reversal. The overall direction remains bullish; it's just a difference in the consolidation period. Our outlook remains bullish, focusing on buying during retracements and buying at low positions.
The movements and trends of Ethereum are synchronized with Bitcoin. In the morning, it surged to around 3767 but faced resistance, then in the afternoon, it retraced to a low of 3573 before rebounding. In the evening, it peaked back to around 3684, then dropped again to around 3558, testing the bottom without breaking through. Currently, it is operating at around 3620 with a small structure! From the current market view, the daily chart shows an alternating trend of gains and losses. In the short term, it has entered a high-level oscillation pattern, fluctuating repeatedly within the oscillation range, with the lower support not broken and the upper range not breached. The current daily chart has entered a state of high-level oscillation contraction. In the short cycles, the market trend is inclined to approach the upper track, but there is fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears, which needs to be combined with market space and patterns. If the key defense level at 3530 below is not lost, the short-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. Currently, the bearish volume has not yet ended, and the market volatility is large, presenting abundant short-term opportunities. Strategies can be flexibly adjusted based on the actual market situation, with opportunities for both bulls and bears.