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Today's Picks
Many Fed officials are open to cutting interest rates in December
Israel and Lebanon accuse each other of violating ceasefire
Trump: Hamas will pay a heavy price if Gaza hostages not released before inauguration
OPEC may extend latest production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025
Eurozone unemployment remains at historic low
MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings for the fourth consecutive week, with total holdings reaching $38 billion
President Xi Jinping: Comprehensively promote the high-quality development of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road"
Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng: The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and policy orientation next year
Central Bank: Starting from the statistics of January 2025, the newly revised statistical caliber of narrow money (M1) will be used; two new financial instruments will be added
Market Review
On Monday, the US dollar index opened higher, regaining the 106 mark, and rose to an intraday high of 106.72 at one point during the session, and finally closed up 0.3% at 106.38. The US Treasury yield rose first and then fell, with the two-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.192% and the 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.198%.
Spot gold fell on Monday due to a sharp rebound in the US dollar. It once rushed above the $2,650 mark in the US market, but then gave up most of its gains and finally closed down 0.45%, ending the momentum of a four-day small increase, at $2,638.57 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 0.33% at $30.50 per ounce.
Crude oil remained stable on Monday. WTI crude oil once approached $69 during the session, and then quickly gave up all the gains during the day and turned down. The final price was the same as last Friday's closing price, at $68 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.24% at $71.83 per barrel.
Major U.S. stock indices rose and fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.29%, the S&P 500 up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq up 0.97%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) rose 28%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3.4%, and Meta Platforms (META.O) rose more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.98%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) rose more than 5%, Douyu (DOYU.O) rose 11%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 1.6%.
The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks closed up 0.65%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 1.2%. The Hang Seng market turnover reached HK$146.099 billion, and the net purchase amount of southbound funds was nearly HK$20 billion. On the market, Apple concept stocks, auto stocks, and steel stocks were strong throughout the day, while real estate agency stocks, gold stocks, and oil stocks fell the most. In terms of individual stocks, Rongsheng China (03301.HK) closed up 11.36%, BYD Electronics (00285.HK) closed up 11.29%, Zhongshouyou (00302.HK) closed up 10.13%, and Ideal Auto (02015.HK) closed down 2.58%.
The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and strengthened. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.42%. On the market, the Hainan Free Trade Zone rose sharply, and individual stocks in the zone set off a surge in daily limit. More than 20 stocks such as Shennong Seed, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, and Hainan Development rose by the daily limit. The concept of humanoid robots rose sharply, and Sanfeng Intelligent, Zhaomin Technology, and Junpu Intelligent rose by 20%. The automobile sector strengthened, and Seres, Haima Automobile, and GAC Group rose by the daily limit. PEEK materials, seed industry, steel, breeding and other sectors also rose at the top, while a few sectors such as telecommunications operations and banks fell. More than 4,600 stocks rose in the entire market, and the transaction amount exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan.
International News
1. Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller expressed his inclination to cut interest rates in December, saying that this move could be both offensive and defensive, but he was also open to suspending interest rate cuts and expected that interest rate cuts would continue in the coming year; Atlanta Fed President Bostic was open to whether to cut interest rates in December, and employment data was the key to decision-making; New York Fed President Williams pointed out that it would be appropriate to continue to shift to a more neutral policy setting.
2. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.4, the highest since June 2024. The U.S. construction spending monthly rate in October was 0.4%, the largest increase since April 2024.
3. Israel and Lebanon once again accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and each launched small-scale attacks.
4. Trump warned Hamas: If the Gaza hostages are not released before the inauguration, Hamas will pay a heavy price.
5. Syrian opposition leader: We will not stop our actions and are ready to start negotiations until the Syrian regime commits to the UN process and political transition.
6. OPEC+ sources revealed that OPEC may extend the latest production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
7. A leak occurred on the Friendship oil pipeline in Poland. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of attacking the pipeline from time to time.
8. The French Prime Minister bypassed the parliament and forced through the fiscal budget. The opposition is likely to file an impeachment motion and the French government may face the risk of collapse.
9. The unemployment rate in the eurozone remains at a historical low, and the ECB may consider cutting interest rates by 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points in December. ECB board member Stournaras said that the ECB may continue to cut interest rates in December; board member Rehn also believes that there is a reason to continue cutting interest rates this month; board member Kazaks pointed out that the ECB may discuss a larger interest rate cut in December, but the uncertainty is high.
10. In order to achieve real-time risk management, the UK is considering postponing the release of economic data until after the opening of the market.
11. German Foreign Minister Bergböck: Germany supports the EU and China to continue negotiations on the issue of anti-subsidy for electric vehicles and strive to find a solution acceptable to both sides.
12. A spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense said that the military supplies delivered to Ukraine in December included Leopard 1 tanks, drones, and IRIS-T air defense systems.
13. Musk: The last step of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is to eliminate itself.
14. OpenAI is reportedly considering introducing advertising to find new sources of revenue.
15. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings for the fourth consecutive week, with total holdings reaching US$38 billion.
Domestic News
1. At the fourth symposium on the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping emphasized that we should strengthen our strategic confidence, be brave in taking on responsibilities, and comprehensively promote the high-quality development of the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.
2. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued policies to promote the high-quality development of venture capital funds of central enterprises, support central enterprises in initiating and establishing venture capital funds, focus on early investment, small investment, long-term investment, and investment in hard technology, and establish a due diligence and compliance exemption from accountability mechanism.
3. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the Central Bank: Next year the central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and policy orientation.
4. Central Bank: Starting from the statistics of January 2025 data, the newly revised statistical caliber of narrow money (M1) will be implemented; two new financial instruments will be added.
5. The Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the US’s semiconductor export control measures: China firmly opposes them and will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
6. Wang Yi held the seventh round of China-Germany Diplomatic and Security Strategic Dialogue with German Foreign Minister Bergböck.
7. China responded to Lithuania’s request for our diplomats to leave the country within a specified period of time: Immediately stop creating difficulties for neutral relations.
8. The National Association of Trading Companies issued a notice on the self-discipline investigation of four rural commercial banks.
9. Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Publicly soliciting opinions on polysilicon futures and options contracts and related rules.
10. The interest rates of newly issued housing loans in many cities have returned to the "3" digit.
11. Treasury yields of multiple maturities hit new lows, with the 10-year yield falling below 2%. Many institutions believe that the two self-regulatory initiatives issued by the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism last Friday have become the catalyst for the "steep bull market in the bond market."
12. Shimao Group: The liquidation petition against the company has been withdrawn.
Risk Warning
☆At 23:00, the United States will announce the October JOLTs job vacancies;
☆At 1:35 the next day, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler delivered a speech;
☆At 5:30 the next day, the United States will announce the API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 29.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
