The latest Kitco News weekly gold survey shows that analysts expecting gold to rise this week and those expecting gold to consolidate are almost evenly split, while retail traders' bullish sentiment has also cooled compared to last week.
This week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News gold survey, with Wall Street sentiment balanced between bullish and neutral. 6 experts (43%) expect gold prices to rise this week, while 7 analysts (50%) predict further consolidation in gold. Only one expert (7% of the total) expects gold prices to fall.
Meanwhile, in Kitco's online poll, a total of 199 people voted, and retail sentiment has also cooled. 96 retail traders (48%) expect gold prices to rise this week, while 61 (31%) anticipate a decline in gold prices. The remaining 42 retail investors (21% of the total) expect gold to show a sideways trend in the short term.
Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, stated that he does not make too much of last week's gold performance due to holiday reasons.
He said, "I never read too much into one week's performance; gold has been quite volatile, as has cryptocurrency, and we have indeed seen gold fluctuate in both directions. Because of the low trading volume, it's hard to draw too many conclusions."
In terms of the medium-term trend, Cieszynski believes that the support for gold remains solid, but he does not expect a strong breakout in gold prices anytime soon.
He said, "It's interesting, recently we have seen good support around $2600, and gold is rebounding from that price level. Then I see the first resistance level between $2690 and $2720. This is the high point from the last two times, once in September and once in November."
He added, "It looks like gold may be forming a head and shoulders pattern, so we need to keep a close eye on that. So far, the upward trend still appears to be continuing."
Cieszynski noted that there are uncertainties in both the technical and fundamental aspects of gold right now, suggesting a cautious approach.
He said, "Gold has gone through a big rally from February to the end of October, and I believe gold is now in a consolidation phase. Technically, gold needs to consolidate its gains; it has gone through significant volatility, and there are many moving parts fundamentally. I think gold prices may get stuck in a range, say fluctuating between $2532 and just below $2800."
He added, "As we observe the moving averages and trends, we may begin to better understand which direction gold will ultimately break out of this range, but it could also fluctuate back and forth within this range for a while."
Looking ahead to this week's non-farm payroll report, Cieszynski said, "If we get a good jobs number, it could indicate that the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut rates, which would boost the dollar and impact gold. But there are many different factors at play right now, and the economy is just one part of it."
He concluded, "Considering all these technical indicators, I will take a neutral stance this week. Gold appears to have gone through a big rally and has gone through several corrections, and it may start to consolidate for a while now."
Adam Button, ForexLive's Head of Forex Strategy, is working to interpret the signals coming from Trump's camp and their potential implications for the dollar and gold prices.
He said, "Trump wants four things: GDP growth of 3%, a reduction of the deficit from about 7% to 3%, a significant reduction in the trade deficit, and a strong stock market. These are Trump's four priorities for the economy, but you can't achieve these goals through tariffs."
Button said, "Do you know what can achieve these four things? A weak dollar. This was discussed and advocated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, nominated by Trump. I think everyone should note that the only way for Trump to achieve his goals may be through a significant devaluation of the dollar, which would undoubtedly be beneficial for gold."
Article reposted from: Jin Shi Data