Source: Talking About Li
With the recent performance of ETH prices and the rapid rise of some altcoins in the short term, I found that many people have started to discuss the topic of altcoin season again. Many KOLs have also seized the preferences of the public and are vigorously recommending various altcoin projects through social platforms with slogans of 10-50 times.
Now:
V Dog has turned back into V God.
Some previously regarded as worthless VC coins have been added back to people's watchlists.
Various so-called trading teachers have begun to become active and show off their profits again.
The so-called masters of eternal profits online are telling you that they actually heavily invested in the coins that have risen these days in advance.
And so on...
It seems that no matter how harshly they were criticized before, just a few big green candles can make people's attitudes do a 180-degree turn. Those who previously swore that this bull market could not have an altcoin season are now looking for someone to ask: which coin should I invest in now?
Just today, I saw Hui Jie say in the group: Isn't trading just a game of ambush and waiting?
I think this statement is very representative.
In the investment field (including the crypto market), if you want to achieve some success, you need to have a certain ability to control your emotions and strictly form your trading discipline. In other words, we need to try to ignore all FUD, avoid being directly influenced by others' emotions, and instead conduct our own research (DYOR) and form our own understanding.
I remember in October, we mentioned in an article that BTC might usher in a new round of rising trends. As shown in the figure below.
With the breakthrough of key positions at that time, BTC rose about 58% in less than two months and continuously broke through new ATH, reaching close to 100,000 USD. However, as BTC re-enters a phase of consolidation, most of those who missed it still hold views similar to those before BTC's rise: Bitcoin has risen a lot; let's wait for a pullback to buy!
As for how much of a pullback there might be next, I don’t know. However, I can foresee that even if there is a pullback, most people will still not buy. This kind of mentality is actually quite common, and we have mentioned (seen) similar situations many times in previous articles from Talking About Li. As shown in the figure below.
When it doesn't rise/fall, they curse it as garbage; when it rises, they wait for a pullback; when it does pull back, they hesitate to buy... When it doesn't rise/fall, they continue to curse it as garbage; it just goes on and on like this. Either they always hope to buy at the lowest point (sell at the highest point), or they fall into a state of missing out completely. And those who have missed out a few times and finally can't help but enter the market will find themselves caught in a new cycle of chasing highs and selling lows...
In summary, for many people, trading seems to be this tangled, and in this continuous entanglement, they either collapse their mindset or lose their capital.
It's like what we mentioned in the previous article (December 1): Even if I now clearly tell you that overall, BTC and ETH are still in an upward trend at this stage, to be honest, for many people, participating now is likely to result in them not being able to hold on, or likely to fall into a state of chasing highs and selling lows. Unless you already have very good self-risk management skills and can strictly manage your position and set reasonable goals.
Goal setting can be divided into two types; many people always like to set goals for 'making money (taking profits)' while ignoring 'loss (stop loss)' goals. Remember, no one can achieve perpetual profits in the investment field; always leave yourself a Plan B.
In recent days, with the rising momentum of some altcoins, many people's FOMO seems to have risen again. As shown in the figure below. Those who were previously trapped in altcoins may be considering whether to withdraw their capital. Meanwhile, those who missed out and think BTC or ETH prices are too high may be looking for new wealth codes everywhere.
I remember in the previous article from Talking About Li, we shared an Altcoin Season Index with everyone. As shown in the figure below.
From the perspective of the altcoin season index, it has now reached its highest level since January 2024, which means that the rise of many altcoins is starting to lead Bitcoin again; a new round of altcoin season seems to have begun. As shown in the figure below.
Actually, regarding the altcoin season, for a period of time before, many people were not optimistic about it; even some big names said that this bull market could not have another altcoin season. But this is likely a matter of understanding; it can only be said that if you want to see another 'all coins flying together' altcoin season like the previous bull market, there may not be much opportunity. However, as long as the right moment for speculation arrives, there are still some altcoins (too many projects were born in this round of cycle; perhaps only 15-20% of altcoins have a chance) that may rise significantly in the short term. As shown in the figure below.
Due to liquidity issues, the performance of altcoin seasons often reflects in the rotation of sectors. If we simply look at historical experience, the general direction is:
First, traditional high-market-cap tokens will rise, such as the more representative XRP, ADA, DOT, and other so-called old coins. Their rise often represents the possible start of an altcoin season.
Secondly, there will be some 'representative' new projects and relatively low-market-cap projects being pumped. The whales have already accumulated their chips before this, and when the right time comes, they will pump and create greater FOMO to attract investors. Of course, some high FDV new projects still need to pay attention to unlocking issues.
Finally, various celebrities and corporate representatives are bringing their 'underlying investors' into the market. In the last bull market, they mainly issued various NFTs, engaged in blockchain games, and the metaverse; this round of bull market is likely to see the issuance of memes.
As for the very end, perhaps just like historical patterns, after a big bull market, there will only be a mess left and a bunch of investors stuck on the mountaintop catching the wind. However, in the above process, there are indeed many wealth opportunities, but such opportunities are often only grasped by a small number of people who can safely escape.
Of course, historical experience cannot fully represent the present and future; it is merely a reference for new possibilities. Therefore, if you want to participate in the above process, you should think clearly about several questions in advance:
Did you enter this field with an investment mindset? Or a speculative mindset? Or a gambling mindset?
How much time and energy can you devote to this field? For example, in aspects like learning and data research?
What is your goal in this field? 1x? 10x? Or 100x?
Are you doing short-term, medium-term, or long-term investments? What is your definition of short-term or long-term?
What is your risk preference? Do you prefer high-market-cap, mid-low market-cap, or low-market-cap projects?
Do you casually listen to others (like KOLs) for trading advice, or do you already have your own investment strategy or logic?
What indicators do you currently use to assist your trading and avoid falling into emotional trading?
If you are stuck in some projects, what is your Plan B?
In summary, the market is always changing, but human nature seems to remain unchanged. What we need to do is to try to grasp some cyclical patterns within it and put them to use. In a cycle, when some can make quick and big money, it means that certainly, someone must be losing money, and in this market, perhaps in the end, only 1% of people can really make money. With the constant changes in the market, V God can turn into V Dog, and V Dog can turn back into V God, but a gambling dog will always only be a gambling dog (the terminology used here is just a reference; I do not mean to disparage anyone, please do not take it personally).
Note: The above content is merely personal views and analyses, intended only for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct interest relationship with Talking About Li (Talking About Li does not accept advertising from any project parties). Please evaluate the safety of corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; we should not enter situations we do not understand or play in situations we cannot afford to lose.