There are many different opinions about the reasons why A-shares rose today.

But there is a rumor circulating among Chinese brokerages that they believe may be the reason for today's rally. The US market has "expectation management" and the Chinese market has "rumor circulation". $BTC

1. The news is unconfirmed, so we are not in a position to make it public. It is probably related to an important meeting in December. According to this news, the meeting may be brought forward, and there will also be changes in real estate and monetary policies. Judging from this news alone, it does not constitute a reason for continued increases.

2. In comparison, we pay more attention to the changes that are happening. For example, the "Dollar Peak Theory". Today, gold and A-shares rose simultaneously, and the two even rose by a similar amount. It is obvious that they are the beneficiaries of the decline of the US dollar. If the US dollar index can start a round of decline, then the stock market is expected to usher in a round of rise (the depreciation of the US dollar often stimulates inflows into emerging markets). The US dollar index has fallen for five consecutive trading days, and today it has fallen below the middle track of the daily chart Bollinger Bands, triggering market discussions on whether the US dollar has peaked.

The decline of the US dollar index this time has a special background:

· First, the month-end rebalancing trade, which we have talked about many times. Usually, those markets that perform strongly at the beginning of the month tend to face correction pressure at the end of the month. This is because fund managers tend to sell outperforming assets to adjust and balance their portfolios. With the results of the US election announced this month, the need to adjust positions is more urgent than in the past. From this point alone, it is not possible to judge that the US dollar has reached its peak.

Second, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will continue to cut interest rates in December. Although the pace of rate cuts may slow down, this week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and speeches by Federal Reserve officials all hinted that interest rates will be cut in December.

3. Regarding tariffs, a round of battles has already taken place this week, and investors seem to view this as a tactical rather than a fundamental issue. It is expected that there will be more related news next week, and the market will continue to ask: Which measures will be truly implemented and which are just bluffs? During Trump's first term, despite many tough statements, most of them ultimately failed to translate into actual actions. Looking forward to Trump's second term, we expect more tough words, and unlike last time, these words will be more likely to be accompanied by concrete follow-up actions.

Next week, the US will release non-farm data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also give a speech. After a few days of silence, it will be another exciting week. #市场回暖新机遇