2025 Global Outlook: Year of Probing, Ten Predictions

2025 is destined to be a year full of uncertainty and challenges. Trump is about to begin his second presidential term, and his policies will gradually take effect from the second half of next year, entering a full implementation phase in 2026. However, this is not merely a simple repetition of policy adjustments; it is more likely to be a process of deep probing and dynamic adjustment.

The risks of Trump 2.0, especially for Chinese investors, may be significantly underestimated. For example, the current announced 10% tariff increase is merely an 'initial probe'; the market's reaction may directly influence the adjustment direction of future policies. If market feedback is relatively mild, the possibility of the tariff rate rising from 10% to 20% or even higher is not alarmist. For the stock market, this would be a 'major surprise' that is hard to bear. Compared to his first term, this time Trump may not only propose more hardline rhetoric but will also push more firmly to translate this into actual actions. A key factor behind this is that Trump's advisory team has changed significantly. The voices that once tried to dissuade him from radical plans have gradually disappeared, and his policy advancement will be less constrained. From trade policy to market intervention, this combination of casualness and toughness means that the future global economic environment will be even more difficult to predict.

For investors, the 'year of probing' is not only a test of Trump's market sentiment but also a test of our cognition and coping ability. From '10% tariffs' to 'governing through social media', the turmoil of the past two days has clearly indicated that policy changes will swiftly impact market fluctuations, and this change may be faster and stronger than many expect.

Therefore, 2025 is not a game of waiting and seeing, but a prelude that requires us to remain vigilant and respond proactively. By cutting through the fog and understanding the truth of Trump’s policies, we can find our footing at the turning point of the new global economic cycle. This is not only a task for the remainder of this year but also a mandatory path to the future.