Five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence told Reuters that the decision to allow Ukraine to launch U.S.-made weapons into the Russian heartland has not increased the risk of nuclear attack, despite increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Russian President Putin, the likelihood of a nuclear attack remains low.

Two senior U.S. officials, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides said that Russia may expand its sabotage activities against European targets as a means of pressuring the West to weaken its support for Ukraine.

Conclusions drawn from a series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months show that nuclear escalation is unlikely to be a result of the U.S. relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-made weapons. Sources say this view has not changed since U.S. President Biden altered the U.S. stance on weapons this month. These sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence freely.

"The assessments are consistent: the U.S. Army's Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) will not change Russia's nuclear strategy," a congressional aide said when informed of the intelligence. ATACMS are U.S. missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 kilometers).

Analysts say that Russia launched a new type of ballistic missile last week, aiming to send a warning to Washington and its European allies, but this did not change the conclusion.

One of five U.S. officials stated that while Washington assesses that Russia is unlikely to seek to escalate its nuclear forces, it will attempt to match its strike capabilities to what it perceives as U.S. escalation actions. This official noted that deploying new missiles is part of this effort.

U.S. officials say this intelligence has helped guide a frequently contentious debate within the Biden administration in recent months, regarding whether it is worth the risk of angering Putin to relax restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-made weapons.

Officials initially resisted this move, citing concerns about escalation and uncertainty about how Putin would respond. Some of these officials, including those from the White House, Pentagon, and State Department, worried that U.S. military and diplomatic personnel could face deadly retaliation, and NATO allies could also be attacked.

Others are particularly concerned about nuclear escalation. U.S. officials say that Biden changed his mind because North Korea intervened before the U.S. presidential election.

Some officials now believe that concerns about escalation, including nuclear issues, have been exaggerated, but they emphasize that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous, and nuclear escalation is not impossible. Russia's ability to find other covert means to retaliate against the West remains a concern.

"Russia's complex responses are concerning," said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies at Georgetown University, speaking about Russia's sabotage activities in Europe, "The potential for escalation is always present. The current concerns are more severe."

The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. The Kremlin did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the intelligence assessment.

Concerns about a nuclear strike against Russia

Since Ukraine's sudden incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August, Moscow and Kyiv have been caught in a cycle of escalating actions and counteractions.

According to the United States, Russia has received help from North Korea, which has sent 11,000 to 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia in combat.

On the same day that Ukraine used U.S.-made missiles to strike Russia for the first time, Russia changed its nuclear principles, lowering the threshold for nuclear strikes.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022, concerns about nuclear escalation have been a factor considered by U.S. officials. CIA Director William Burns indicated that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine by the end of 2022.

Even so, the White House has pushed forward with assistance to Ukraine, providing billions of dollars in military aid.

As Putin has not translated his threats into action, some officials' concerns have gradually faded, but this worry still remains central when weighing how the U.S. should support Kyiv.

In May, the White House allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made missiles to strike across the border in limited circumstances, but not deep into Russia, citing the risk of Moscow escalating the conflict, the minimal tactical benefits, and limited supply of interceptor missiles.

An intelligence assessment report drafted at the request of the White House explained that attacks launched from the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv have limited impact because 90% of Russian aircraft have already withdrawn from the border, beyond the range of short-range missiles.

However, the assessment also noted that while Putin often threatens to use nuclear weapons, Moscow is unlikely to take this step, in part because doing so would not provide significant military benefits. Intelligence officials describe nuclear weapons as Russia's last resort, with Putin likely to first resort to other means of retaliation and pointing out that Russia has already carried out deliberate sabotage and cyberattacks.

Nevertheless, some officials within the White House and the Pentagon believe that allowing Kyiv to use missiles to strike within Russia would put Ukraine, the United States, and U.S. allies in unprecedented danger, potentially prompting Putin to retaliate outside the battlefield through nuclear or other lethal means.

Pentagon officials are concerned about attacks on U.S. military bases.

North Korean assistance to Russia has changed the Biden administration's thinking

A senior U.S. official indicated that the involvement of North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine conflict convinced the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons for long-range strikes, particularly among a group of officials in the White House and the Pentagon who were concerned about escalating the situation.

The official said that Russia has made progress on the battlefield and views the inclusion of North Korean troops as an escalation, expecting Washington to respond.

A senior U.S. official and a lawmaker cited recent Russian advances, stating that given earlier intelligence assessments downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation, concerns about nuclear issues have been exaggerated, and the decision to allow Ukraine broader use of ATACMS came too late.

Intelligence sources indicate that Moscow's strongest and most successful retaliatory actions may be achieved through deliberate sabotage. A European diplomat stated that Russian intelligence agencies have launched large-scale international operations in Europe to intimidate countries supporting Ukraine.

A U.S. official added that Moscow is actively seeking to advance its 'gray zone' warfare against the West, with Russia having an extensive network of agents and exploring options for using these agents.

Article reposted from: Jin Ten Data