Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institution View Summary

Abroad

1. JPMorgan: Expects the U.S. stock market to maintain its global dominance in 2025.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that unless geopolitical and trade policy risks diminish, the U.S. stock market's dominance over other countries' stock markets is unlikely to weaken. Analysts pointed out in a report that "the polarized performance of regional markets at this stage is likely to continue." The S&P 500 index rose 26% in 2024, repeatedly hitting new historical highs, while the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index only returned 3.5%. Wall Street strategists have previously released optimistic outlooks for 2025, forecasting that the S&P 500 index's rise this year will continue, as U.S. companies continue to achieve high profits against a backdrop of strong economic growth.

2. Swiss Bank: The official ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, along with increased bets on a Fed rate cut in December, has dragged down the dollar.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swiss Bank, reported that due to ceasefire news between Israel and Hezbollah, safe-haven demand has weakened, leading to a decline in the dollar. Additionally, following the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, market bets on another rate cut in February have increased, which has also dragged down the dollar to some extent. Ozkardeskaya stated that if tonight's PCE inflation data does not exceed expectations, investors will continue to support the rate cut expectation for December, which may further weaken the dollar.

3. ING: The Bank of Korea's unexpected rate cut raises growing concerns about weak economic growth.

Min Joo Kang, an analyst at ING, stated that the Bank of Korea's decision to cut rates again indicates the necessity to support the economy, even as concerns about the stability of the currency grow. She pointed out that it is unusual for the Bank of Korea to cut rates consecutively, unless in times of crisis. This unexpected move shows that priority is given to economic growth rather than short-term stability in financial markets. Kang added that the Bank of Korea acted before global headwinds further damage an already slowing economy. ING expects that disagreements among committee members on policy issues will persist. Comments from Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong indicate his confidence in the tools available to mitigate currency fluctuations, mentioning a swap agreement with the National Pension Service and substantial foreign exchange reserves.

4. ING: The Bank of Korea may further cut rates in the future, but the impact remains uncertain.

The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut rates this morning, indicating that the bank's priority is economic growth rather than short-term stability in financial markets. ING economist Min Joo Kang stated that the Bank of Korea anticipates that low rates will reduce the debt repayment burden on households and businesses, while the government's macroprudential measures will slow the growth of private debt. She remarked, "Although we agree that a loose monetary policy can cushion a sharp decline in economic growth, we do not fully agree that it will stimulate consumption and investment." Weak exports and uncertainties in trade policies challenge the recovery expectations for investment and consumption. ING currently expects the Bank of Korea to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter in 2025 but maintains its GDP forecast at 1.6%, with the 2024 GDP forecast at 2.2%. ING also projects that South Korea's inflation rate will decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025, as the weakening won and demand-side pressures offset each other. (Jin Shi Data APP)

Domestic

1. CITIC Jianan: Gold prices are recently correcting at high levels; consider reallocating around $2400.

CITIC Jianan reported that since November, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index have significantly rebounded under Trump’s trades, while rate cut expectations have cooled, leading to a high-level correction in gold prices, which once fell to around $2500. In the medium term, as the U.S. economy and inflation slow down simultaneously, gold prices are likely to remain in a high-level oscillation mode. In the short term, considering an increase in allocation around $2400 gold price.

2. CITIC Securities: Optimistically expects the IP-derived market size to exceed 500 billion yuan.

CITIC Securities pointed out that based on estimates of the domestic pan-2D field, in the long term, under optimistic conditions, it is expected to leverage over 500 billion in IP-derived consumption. There is reason to believe that young consumers will have a high premium payment ability for personalization and value recognition, and in the context of the booming development of IP-derived consumption, it is bound to give birth to high-quality companies with content ecosystems and brand strength.

3. CITIC Jianan: The film industry supply in 2025 is expected to recover strongly; optimistic about AI video technology enabling film production.

CITIC Jianan reported that the supply fluctuations in the film industry in 2024 may lead to lackluster market performance. However, looking ahead to 2025, both domestic and imported films are expected to strongly recover. For domestic films, the Spring Festival file in 2025 is expected to become a peak period concentrated with historical blockbuster films, with a rich variety and large number of domestic films throughout the year. For imported films, multiple films have been scheduled for release in North America, and there is optimism regarding the recovery of viewing demand next year. In terms of AI video, tools like Sora, Pika, Keling, and Conch are becoming more usable, and there is optimism regarding AI empowering film content production.

4. Shenwan Hongyuan: Confident in the long-term stable development of the Chinese economy and capital market.

The "2024 China Financial Institutions Annual Summit" was held in Shenzhen, where Zhang Jian, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, expressed confidence in the long-term stable development of the Chinese economy. Data shows that the real estate sector's transaction activity is gradually warming, with significant narrowing in the year-on-year decline in sales volume and area of commercial housing; in terms of domestic consumption, the trade-in policy has driven rapid improvement in automobile and home appliance consumption, combined with the Double Eleven e-commerce promotion activities, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in October has recovered to nearly 5%; benefiting from the gradual effects of policies like infrastructure and equipment upgrades, fixed investment continues to rebound, and exports maintain substantial resilience. "Despite the current complex internal and external environmental challenges faced by our country, the underlying logic of the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy and capital market has not changed, and we are confident in the long-term stable development of the Chinese economy and capital market," Zhang Jian said. (Qun Zhong She)

5. Cinda Securities: The short drama industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing downloads and in-app purchase revenues.

Cinda Securities reported that the short drama industry has been brought under industry regulation, ensuring the stable and healthy continuous development of the industry. Due to tightening policies and platform regulations, rising user demand for content quality, and internal adjustments brought about by market competition, the overall industry scale continues to show a sustainable growth trend driven by market demand. With multiple positive factors combined, the trend toward high-quality content in micro-short dramas has become increasingly apparent, which is also a key element driving the high-quality development of the industry. The short drama industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing downloads and in-app purchase revenues. From November 2022 to October 2024, over 100 short drama applications have been active in overseas markets. Excluding applications without download data for three months, 83 overseas short drama applications have accumulated downloads exceeding 287 million and in-app purchase revenues of 490 million USD (equivalent to 3.547 billion yuan). The growth trend of short drama applications in overseas markets has surged this year. The business model for short dramas typically includes three types: pay-per-episode, membership subscriptions, and advertising monetization.

6. Galaxy Securities: A-shares are expected to spiral upward next year, with growth stocks dominating the market.

The Galaxy Securities Global Technology Investment Forum was held today in Beijing, where Yang Chao, Chief Analyst of Strategy at Galaxy Securities, stated that the A-share market is expected to spiral upward in 2025, with a highly uncertain future investment environment, facing geopolitical factors, trade policy risks, and potential pressure on the A-share market. However, it is expected that our country’s policies will take proactive measures, with positive expectations for fundamental recovery leading to a marginal improvement in A-share performance, driving the market to spiral upward. In terms of thematic style, it is judged that growth stocks will dominate the market, benefiting the technology growth sector. Recommendations include: first, the consumption sector with significant marginal improvement in performance; second, the financial sector, where both performance and valuation have upside potential; third, investment opportunities related to "new momentum", especially in the Sci-Tech Innovation theme; fourth, investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise reform.

7. Haitong Securities: Investment demand on the power distribution network side is expected to increase.

Haitong Securities reported that with the advancement of the new power system construction, the distribution network is gradually transforming from a simple network that accepts and distributes electrical energy to a power network that integrates sources, networks, loads, and storage with flexible coupling with the upper grid. This transformation significantly enhances the ability to promote the nearby consumption of distributed power sources and support new types of loads, improving the measurability and controllability of distribution networks, thereby increasing reliability and capacity. Investment demand on the distribution network side is expected to rise, focusing on digital intelligence and the renovation of primary equipment.

8. Haitong International: Optimistic about the long-term investment logic of the aviation industry remaining unchanged.

Haitong International reported that during the peak seasons of the Spring Festival and summer vacation, domestic supply and demand have significantly increased compared to 2019, with rigid travel demand driving stable growth in airline capacity. This year, international flights have further recovered, and with improved international relations and gradually friendlier entry and exit visa policies, international air travel demand is expected to further warm up in 2024. In the short term, there is strong demand for personal travel during holidays like National Day, and the supply and demand for international routes are recovering rapidly, but subdued business travel during off-peak seasons may drag down the overall recovery progress, which is constrained by the economy, and price performance may be affected. In the long term, the growth rate of capacity introduction by Chinese airlines is expected to slow down; confidence in travel continues to recover, and the long-term investment logic of the aviation industry remains unchanged (i.e., improvement in supply-demand structure and market-based ticket pricing), waiting for economic recovery. It is expected that the profit center for airlines in 2024 is likely to rise, and attention should be paid to investment opportunities in the aviation sector.

Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data