$BTC 12 December 6th marks the end of this month's cycle. During the current monthly cycle, the small fluctuations have not exceeded the drop position of 11/25. This means that before December 6th, the market is likely to experience fluctuations and decline, making short positions the right choice.
The November cycle ends on December 6th, and this is when it’s time to enter the spot market, while contracts should focus on long positions at lower levels.
The market is generally optimistic that the bulls will continue to break through 100,000 and 150,000. Here are my analysis and perspectives.
If there are still bulls, they will likely emerge after a significant pullback starting from December 6th. The new monthly cycle's peak will determine whether the market continues to be bullish or experiences fluctuations and declines into a bear market.
If it is a bull market, then breaking new highs above 100,000 will continue the upward trend of the monthly cycle. If it is a bear market, then the high will not exceed 99,600, leading to a downward pressure at high levels, and lower levels will also decline.
I want to specifically mention that on December 25th, Christmas, the US market will be closed, and the probability of entering a bear market during this period is very high. Additionally, 11/25 is the peak of this month’s cycle decline, and I am more inclined to believe that December 25th will be the peak of the December monthly cycle decline, which will be lower than 11/25, forming a downward fluctuation trend. If there are still bulls, I am more inclined to believe that after a fluctuating decline in the monthly cycle (small bear market), there will be a rise around April next year, forming a bull period that spans the New Year.
The reason is that during the Trump era, the crypto market was promoted, with BTC viewed as a strategic reserve by the government. Those who are clear-minded know that this is meant to raise BTC prices to reduce government deficits. BTC will remain strong for the next four years, so don’t expect BTC to drop back to 60,000 unless the US government sells off.
The second reason: This major market harvesting has caused heavy losses among retail investors, and as part of capital operations, there must be a relative buffering period for the market to recover before another harvesting can take place.
Summary:
Before the end of this month's cycle, the market is trending downward with fluctuations, primarily at high levels.
December 6th is the start of the next cycle. Regardless of whether the market experiences a downward fluctuation in the monthly cycle or enters a bull market, there will be significant upward movements, providing opportunities to enter the spot market, while contracts should focus on long positions.
As for what happens next, we will discuss that later; for now, let’s focus on the current path.
