As an investor who has been navigating the crypto space for many years, the bustling scenes in the crypto world these past few days have made me feel I cannot let my guard down for a moment. Various news is continuously emerging, and the market is fluctuating; every change may hide investment opportunities or risks. Next, I will discuss this series of matters from the investor's perspective.
I. Important News from Last Night to This Morning
(I) Regulatory Winds Changing
U.S. Court Rules OFAC's Sanction of Tornado Cash Exceeds Authority: Hey, this is crucial! The U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has directly overturned a lower court's ruling, clearly stating that the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) exceeded its authority in sanctioning the immutable smart contracts of Tornado Cash. This is like a blessing for the Tornado Cash protocol and its users. You see, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer has already stated that these smart contracts need to be removed from the sanctions list, and U.S. users can now freely use this privacy-enhancing protocol. Furthermore, not long after, Tornado Cash (TORN) skyrocketed, rising over 900% in 24 hours. This surge truly left people in shock and demonstrated how regulatory news can impact cryptocurrency prices.
Trump Administration's New Regulatory Approach: The incoming Trump administration plans to make significant moves in digital asset regulation, intending to expand the powers of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lead much of the regulatory work in the digital asset market. Why? On one hand, they want to weaken the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) regulatory authority over the digital asset industry, especially under President Biden and Gary Gensler's leadership. On the other hand, with the growing influence of the crypto industry in Republican politics, the Trump administration believes that relaxing regulations could better stimulate innovation in crypto businesses, potentially accelerating the development of blockchain technologies with transformative potential. The former CFTC chairman is also confident that the CFTC can start regulating digital commodities from day one of Trump's presidency. These regulatory changes pose important considerations for us investors, as a change in regulatory policy could alter the entire market's dynamics.
(II) Policy Trends in Various Countries
Brazil: Bitcoin May Become a New Member of National Treasury Reserves: An interesting development in Brazil, where a member of the House of Representatives proposed allocating 5% of the country's $370 billion treasury to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. If this Bitcoin reserve bill is successfully passed, first in the House, then receiving approval from the Federal Senate, and finally enacted into law by the Brazilian president, Bitcoin will truly take center stage in Brazil, which could significantly influence the global Bitcoin market. We investors should closely monitor the progress of this matter as it could represent a new growth point for Bitcoin's future.
Morocco: Cryptocurrency Ban Expected to Be Lifted: Morocco has had a cryptocurrency ban since 2017, but now there seems to be a turning point. The governor of the Moroccan central bank revealed at an international conference that they are pushing a cryptocurrency-related bill and have already entered the approval process. Not only that, the central bank has also drafted regulatory laws for crypto assets and is researching the feasibility of central bank digital currency (CBDC). This means that Morocco's crypto market is likely to welcome a spring, representing a potential new blue ocean for us investors. If we can position ourselves early, we might reap the first wave of dividends.
(III) Exchanges and Projects Insights
Kraken Shuts Down NFT Market: The crypto exchange Kraken has made a significant decision to shut down its NFT market. They say it’s to concentrate resources on other more promising projects. Starting November 27, 2024, users will no longer be able to list, bid, or sell items on this NFT market and can only withdraw their assets. By February 27, 2025, this market will be completely closed. This prompts those who have invested in Kraken's NFT market to quickly consider how to manage their assets, and it alters the overall landscape of the NFT market, necessitating a reevaluation of investment opportunities in the NFT space.
Movement Network Foundation's Airdrop Benefits: The Movement Network Foundation has brought a little surprise to everyone by announcing the MoveDrop airdrop plan, which will airdrop 10% of the $MOVE tokens to community members. However, this airdrop is not available to everyone; certain conditions must be met, such as being a participant in Road to Parthenon, a winner of Battle of Olympus, Gmovers, designated communities, and Movement testnet builders. Additionally, registration on the MoveDrop website must be completed before 2 PM UTC on December 2, 2024, or else you will lose eligibility for the airdrop. Furthermore, choosing to claim tokens at different times will yield different reward multipliers, with benefits for claiming on the Ethereum mainnet or waiting until the Movement Network mainnet is launched. For us investors, if we meet the conditions, it represents free earnings, so it’s worth trying our luck.
WalletConnect Brings New Opportunities: WalletConnect has launched a WCT token eligibility check page, providing new opportunities for many investors. Eligible friends can apply for WCT tokens and stake them, potentially becoming a new highlight in our investment portfolios. Everyone should quickly check if they qualify.
(IV) Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrency Situations
New Predictions for Bitcoin Price Trends: Glassnode's report has alerted us that if the market continues to decline, Bitcoin may fall below the $88,000 region, then attempt to retest the $100,000 mark. This is like providing us with a roadmap, giving us a general expectation of Bitcoin's upcoming price fluctuations, and allowing us to prepare and adjust our investment strategies in advance.
Uniswap Labs Ensures Security with New Measures: Uniswap Labs has launched a super impressive bug bounty program with a total of $15.5 million, marking the largest bug bounty program in history. Why such a big move? It's to ensure the security of Uniswap v4. This new version of the Uniswap protocol introduces many practical features, such as the 'hooks' feature, which allows developers to customize pools, transactions, fees, and liquidity provider (LP) interactions more freely, while significantly reducing user costs, cutting pool creation costs by 99.99%, and optimizing multi-hop transaction costs. Fortunately, after independent audits from nine institutions, including OpenZeppelin and Trail of Bits, and multiple rounds of community security competitions, no major vulnerabilities have been found yet, which is a great relief for us investors who frequently trade on Uniswap.
Starknet Launches New Staking Features: Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solution Starknet has made a new move by officially launching cryptocurrency staking functionality, becoming the first Ethereum L2 network to allow users to earn rewards through staking tokens. Users holding at least 20,000 STRK (about $12,000) can become validators by staking assets to verify transactions and earn rewards; users with fewer than 20,000 STRK can delegate their tokens to validators for staking. However, it's important to note that both staking and withdrawing tokens will require a waiting period of 21 days, during which the rewards must also be waited for. Meanwhile, Bitwise Asset Management has announced that it will operate a public validator node for STRK holders to delegate staking and provide independent validator services for institutional clients. This adds another earning avenue for investors holding STRK tokens, and everyone should explore this new opportunity.
U.S. Public Companies Also Favor Bitcoin: U.S. public company Banzai International, Inc. (NASDAQ: BNZI) is truly keeping up with the trend, as their board has approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a fiscal reserve asset, allowing up to 10% of the company's financial accounts to be used for Bitcoin purchases. What does this indicate? It shows that more and more public companies are beginning to recognize Bitcoin's value, which is also an encouragement for us ordinary investors, reinforcing our belief in Bitcoin's importance in asset allocation.
NYSE's New Application May Bring New Opportunities: NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, has submitted a 19b-4 application for Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs. If this application passes and the relevant Form S-1 registration statement becomes effective, a Bitwise exchange-traded product (ETP) that holds market-cap-weighted Bitcoin and Ethereum spot will be listed, making it easier for investors to access these two assets. This represents a potential new investment avenue for us investors; let’s await the subsequent approval results.
(V) Other Project Developments and Market Performance
Talus Network Financing Boosts Development: Talus Network has completed a $6 million financing round led by Polychain Capital, achieving a valuation of $150 million. This round attracted several other investors, including Foresight Ventures, Animoca, Geek Cartel, and Echo, along with several notable angel investors. The funds will primarily be used to expand the Talus ecosystem, with plans to launch projects like Protochain, Nexus framework, and 'AI Dating Experience' application. Talus has already raised a total of $9 million. Moreover, Talus aims to support decentralized AI agents, with the Talus Agents managing DeFi investment portfolios, DAO governance fund allocation, and in-game NPC tasks, allowing users to jointly own and trade these on-chain assets. Additionally, the platform plans to launch a TAI token for transaction fee payments and resource allocation. As a case study, Talus will launch the 'AI Bae' application by the end of the year, providing users with personalized AI companions that connect to TikTok to generate unique virtual avatars and support chatting, social betting, and tokenized interactions. This project's development prospects are quite promising for friends investing in Talus Network.
Pump.fun's Influence in the Solana DEX: Pump.fun has significant influence on the Solana decentralized exchange (DEX), accounting for 62% of Solana DEX trading volume in November and 42.3% of transaction value. Over the past three months, it has averaged over 60% of Solana's DEX trading volume. This platform, launched in January 2024, allows users to create tokens for free and has spawned many popular meme coins. However, it has also faced controversy due to inappropriate content live streams and legal compliance issues, such as animal abuse, fake suicide performances, and inappropriate video uploads, which are quite discomforting. Despite this, it has made significant contributions to Solana's trading ecosystem; we must also be aware that over-reliance on Pump.fun by Solana could pose potential risks, such as affecting the long-term sustainability of the Solana network, which requires careful consideration for those investing in Solana-related projects.
Pantera Bitcoin Fund Achieves Remarkable Results: Pantera Capital's Bitcoin fund has achieved miracles, with a return rate exceeding 1000 times since its establishment in 2013, totaling a return rate of 131,165%. Fund manager Dan Morehead reflected on the fund's early days, mentioning that the team bought 2% of the world's Bitcoin when prices were at a low in 2013. He is also confident about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could reach a market value level of $740,000 per coin in the coming years, and believes the long-term growth of the blockchain industry will continue to provide substantial returns for investors. This has further strengthened our resolve to hold Bitcoin long-term.
Pump.Fun's SOL Transfer Operations Draw Attention: Pump.Fun has made new moves, transferring nearly 100,000 SOL (worth approximately $22.74 million) to the Kraken exchange again. As of now, this address has deposited a total of 893,242 SOL at an average price of $164. Through its operations, Pump.Fun has earned a cumulative total of 1,487,066 SOL, currently valued at about $344.85 million. This series of operations will have a certain impact on Solana's market supply and demand dynamics and price trends, so we investors need to keep an eye on these developments.
II. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Market on November 27 and Investment Strategy Discussion
(I) Overall Market Situation
From Bitcoin's Escape Top Chart, Bitcoin's current price is still in the upward process and has not yet reached the escape top range. The peak of this bull market is indicated at 216,364, and the current decline is actually a normal adjustment in the upward process. According to analysis, Bitcoin's mid-term target is around 113,600, while Ethereum's mid-term target is 4,560. For longer-term targets, such as 150,000 or 200,000, although we believe it is possible to reach, given the current market's complexity and uncertainty, these targets still seem relatively distant. As investors, we must adjust our investment strategies reasonably based on this information, combined with our risk tolerance and investment goals.
(II) Spot Investment Strategies
For us holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot, here are some suggestions for your reference. It is advised to hold BTC positions in the range of 110,000 to 150,000 and ETH positions in the range of 4,000 to 6,000. When the price of BTC exceeds 100,000, consider selling in batches every 3,000 points; for ETH, consider selling in batches every 400 points. However, be cautious after selling and consider carefully whether to re-enter, unless there is a significant pullback or a black swan event causing prices to plummet, as the cost of re-entering may be high and could be unprofitable. This strategy aims to allow us to gradually lock in profits during the price increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum while avoiding the risks of blindly chasing highs and exiting too early.
(III) Short-term Technical Analysis Insights
The Secrets of Rebounds and Pullbacks: Recently, the market has shown some signs of rebound, but then faced downward pressure. From a technical analysis perspective, the six-hour MACD zero-cross bounce and the eight-hour zero-cross bounce indicate that there is a short-term rebound demand in the market. However, we must not be misled by these apparent rebounds, as they could merely be a transient phenomenon in the pullback process, and the market may continue to decline, so we must remain vigilant.
The Importance of Key Support and Resistance Levels: Currently, BTC has fallen below the first CME gap, and we need to watch whether it will fill the second gap. Furthermore, Bitcoin has reached above a major neckline level, and whether this position can be maintained is crucial for the subsequent market trajectory. If key support levels are broken, it could trigger widespread long liquidations, making the market even more volatile and greatly impacting our investments, so we need to closely monitor this situation.
Market Signals Behind Indicator Changes: From various technical indicators, most have already begun to turn bearish. For example, the MACD top divergence is beginning to shrink, the DIF and DEA are forming a death cross trend at high levels, the Bollinger Bands are showing a contracting market, and KDJ is spreading downwards. These changes in indicators suggest that the market may face further pullback risks, so we investors need to treat market conditions more cautiously and prepare risk control measures in advance.
(IV) Other Market Dynamics and Influences
Exchange-related Developments: The New York Stock Exchange has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETPs. If this application is successfully approved and the relevant registration statement becomes effective, it will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the market. However, we still need to wait for these procedures to be completed, so let's closely monitor the progress of this matter and see what kind of impact it will bring to the market.
Long-term Holder Behavior Analysis: Long-term Bitcoin holders sold 728,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the highest level since April. This phenomenon indicates that some long-term holders may be cashing out, which undoubtedly puts pressure on the market. It also makes us ponder whether the market has reached a peak stage. Should we consider adjusting our holdings accordingly?
(V) Summary and Investment Recommendations
Based on the above analysis of the Bitcoin market, we can see that the current Bitcoin market indeed faces certain pullback pressure; however, in the long term, its long-term trend remains positive. As investors facing such market conditions, we must treat short-term rebound and pullback opportunities cautiously, formulating reasonable trading strategies based on our risk tolerance and investment goals. At the same time, we should closely monitor market dynamics and changes in technical indicators to respond appropriately in a timely manner. Lastly, and most importantly, we must emphasize risk management, setting reasonable stop-loss points to control potential losses, as risks are ubiquitous in the uncertain crypto market.
III. Analysis of Potential Altcoins and Investment Opportunities Worth Noting
Potential Stocks on the Solana Chain
Ray (Raydium): The DeFi Pearl on the Solana Chain: $RAY is the largest DeFi project on the Solana chain, completing more than half of the trading volume on the chain. Its weekly trading volume is comparable to that of Uni, with a TVL about half that of Uni. However, you see, its market value is over 100 billion for Uni, while Ray is only around 30 billion, indicating that Ray has substantial room for appreciation. Currently, the overall performance of the Solana chain is quite good, and taking advantage of the current pullback, we might consider allocating some Ray, as it could enable us to enjoy the rebound dividends following Solana's development.
JTO: The Potential Star of Liquid Staking: $JTO focuses on liquid staking on the Solana chain, with annualized returns reaching 11%, and its TVL is as high as $3.5 billion, showcasing its significance on the Solana chain. Moreover, JTO now has a distribution proposal to allocate part of the protocol's revenue to SOL stakers. Its current protocol monthly revenue is $194 million, with a fee rate of 2.7%, where 0.27% of revenue, equivalent to 5% of the protocol's revenue, will be distributed to users, which is a significant positive.
