Advisor discusses hot topics:
After looking at the Federal Reserve's minutes from the November meeting, the advisor feels that there isn't much unexpected information. The possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in December remains the highest, but this is merely a favorable expectation the market has priced in.
Speaking of news, the advisor can't help but mention that recently, whenever Bitcoin drops, various 'negative news' immediately floods the media, and reports of selling and crashing follow.
In fact, the advisor has always wanted to ask, why didn't you start reporting these earlier? This kind of news seems to grab attention only after a drop; emotional news reactions attract more attention than actual trends. Aren't you just abandoning all pretense?
Regarding the current market situation for the medium to long term, the advisor does not recommend opening short positions anymore. Because the two strongest days for bears have passed, the current adjustment is nearing its end, and the 8-hour and 12-hour rebounds have been completed; the next trend should not drop too much.
The advisor has also seen that many people in the market expect a pullback to 80K or 76K, but I do not agree. Based on the current trend, the lowest should not drop below 88K or 87K.
The daily indicators are still far from the zero axis, making it difficult to judge whether there will be a significant adjustment in the short term. Especially around 90K, the advisor believes it will not easily fall below that level; rather, if the indicators below 4 hours regain strength, it could stifle the potential for a significant adjustment and even lead to a rebound.
Therefore, the operational thought for the recent period remains to buy on dips. If your average price is high, you can appropriately do a T trade, waiting for a pullback to find an entry opportunity. As for shorting, it is advisable to be cautious. The rebound strength in a bull market is still very strong, especially after the MACD for 8 and 12 hours returns to zero, making the market's upward potential greater.
So if there are no strong bearish signals, in the short term, you can maintain the idea of buying on dips. My main axis remains: when bulls are strong and bears are weak, focus on buying; when bears are strong, focus on shorting. Daily pressure and support levels can serve as references, and everyone should operate flexibly based on the actual market situation, without relying on others to tell you whether to go long or short today.
From the perspective of medium to long-term goals in the spot market, the advisor's expectation for Bitcoin's mid-term target is 111,600-113,600, while Ethereum's target is 4,560. Many friends always have trouble understanding medium to long-term during calls with the advisor; actually, medium-term refers to a cycle of 7 to 45 days, while long-term is over 90 days.
And now the advisor won't simulate the prices three months from now; what I'm talking about is expectation, not prediction. Because the advisor has mentioned in previous articles that predicting prices is quite absurd!
Although targets like 130,000 and 150,000 may be reached, the advisor feels that for the current market, they are more long-term goals. What I am more optimistic about is that 100,000 is the mid-term target of the bull market for Bitcoin, and it should be realized in this bull market. As for the short term, 100,000 is also a phase high.
The advisor looks at trends:
After sufficiently selling short, the buying demand at the low point needs to reappear. Only then can Bitcoin restore its upward trend; the possibility of breaking through 100,000 remains high, but for the balance of the market, an adjustment phase is inevitable.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 93,700
Second resistance level: 94,900
Support level reference:
First support level: 92,400
Second support level: 91,100
Today's suggestion:
The current downtrend line has been broken, but due to the psychological resistance at 93K, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating. If it maintains fluctuations within a certain range, it may retest 93K.
If the trend breaks out and the low point rises, an N-shaped upward movement is expected. In the ultra-short term, the first support line can be set as short-term support, as an entry opportunity. If the current low point remains unbroken, it can prevent further declines and maintain rebound expectations.
11.27 Advisor's segment entry:
Long entry reference: 90,900 light long positions. If it pulls back to 90,255, directly add to long positions. If the entity breaks the 90,000 mark, don't hesitate to exit immediately. If the market strongly spikes to 88,200-87,800, then you can go long again! Target: 92,400-93,700
Short entry reference: Not applicable