1. The 'Buying the Dip' Craze on Altcoins and Potential Risks
When Bitcoin's price was at 98,000, many investors rushed to 'buy the dip' on altcoins. They subjectively believed some altcoins were at price bottoms, but ignored key factors. If Bitcoin's price corrects from this level, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum will inevitably suffer significant drops. It can be anticipated that Bitcoin's correction will severely impact many bulls, and the market will complete a round of harvesting. Those who are confident that Ethereum will not drop below 3,000 or even 2,000 will likely have to accept a profound lesson from the market in subsequent trends.
2. Criteria for Determining Bull Markets and the Current Market Nature
Regarding whether we are currently in a bull market, it is essential to clarify that the basic premise for a bull market to start is that the bearish forces far exceed the bullish ones, and during the process of rising, there will frequently be corrections of 20% or 'pin bars' to clean out the bulls. However, this round of increase has not genuinely gone through this process; it is merely a price surge in Bitcoin, not a traditional bull market. If in doubt, reviewing the market trends of early 2014, 2017, and 2021 will make it clear.
3. The Capital Layout Behind the 'Trump Positive News'
At the time of the ETF launch, many retail investors expected Bitcoin to break 5,000, but it only reached 2,100. This indicates that some so-called positive news is actually a capital maneuver. U.S. leaders often rise to power through capital strength, and the positive news they release is likely a means of capital operations. This also explains why Buffett refuses to invest in Bitcoin, even at 50 dollars each.
4. The Rise of Bitcoin and the Game of International Capital
The current rise in Bitcoin is likely to repeat the scenario of 2021, intending to induce domestic capital to enter before implementing a harvest. However, this time domestic capital remains cautious and is not swayed, regardless of how foreign capital operates.
5. Beware of Market Noise and Invest Rationally
Investors must not be swayed by the opinions of others. The crypto market is not a charitable place; when Bitcoin was at a high of 98,000, altcoins seemed to be at the bottom, but it was not a good opportunity to hand out money. Investors must think carefully.
6. The Correlation Between Bitcoin and National Economic Risks
If a country uses Bitcoin as a core tool to resist debt, it often indicates that the country's economy is heading towards distress, and it may even face bankruptcy crises under pressures such as trade wars.
