Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping from a high of around 99,000 all the way down, with the lowest point in the morning falling below 93,000, a drop of over 6,000 points. Meanwhile, Ethereum's upward adjustment peaked at around 3,550, driving the value leaders in the Ethereum series, LDO and ENS, to surge significantly. Looking at it now, BNB and ORDI, which haven't seen much of a rebound yet, can be focused on, as they are projects within the Bitcoin ecosystem, with hot trends and trading volume. Generally, when a trending market arises, it tends to last for a few days.
Previously, I kept reminding that the market has been rising from the bottom without any significant pullbacks. Perhaps institutions are rotating their holdings, and the trend is predictable. However, altcoins have not followed the decline much, which indicates that the altcoin explosion season is nearing! I am also looking forward to the altcoin market ahead.
From now on, Bitcoin is no longer sucking blood but starting to 'bleed'. The fact that altcoins are not following the decline proves that as long as one plays with leading or strong coins without chasing highs, the probability of losing money is low. For example, the strong public chains like XTZ and FTM that were bought recently, including meme coins like Wif and Floki, the main battleground will still need more position in meme coins. It's impossible to expect dozens of times returns at this stage; there's no need to fantasize. At least macro conditions must allow for large-scale interest rate cuts.
What will the future trend of Bitcoin look like?
The current trend is exactly the same as in 2020, starting to rise in October and doubling by November 25. Last time it was from 10,000 to 20,000, this time it's from 50,000 to 100,000.
The last Friday of November every year is the Western traditional shopping frenzy, Black Friday, which aligns with the pattern of a drop during festive seasons. A large number of retail investors will withdraw money to spend, pulling a significant amount from the crypto market.
Of course, the money taken out isn't much, but many anticipate this pullback, so even if they don't go shopping, they sell at the highs. Combined, this amplifies the pullback effect.
Last Black Friday, there was a 16% pullback over the week. This time, it might be less, with 87,500 being a very good support level. If it reaches there, one can directly enter the market. Additionally, 90,000 is also a significant integer support level.
Looking back at the previous cycle, it slowly rose again after Black Friday, but the increase wasn't large. It consolidated for two weeks before continuing to explode, so this time might be similar.
And ETH's strength is evident to everyone now; large funds have entered the market. Bitcoin has plummeted, while it has consolidated. Once Bitcoin warms up, ETH will start to gain momentum, and any pullbacks can be taken advantage of.
ETH, SOL, and various altcoins can still be strategically accumulated at lower prices. After the crypto market consolidates until early December, it will rise again for another big wave!
What stage are altcoins currently in?
First, talking about the rhythm of the entire bull market, this round of bull market is two distinctly different phases around Bitcoin breaking 100,000. After breaking 100,000, the entire bull market will enter an acceleration phase, a super FOMO phase, where both Bitcoin and altcoins will surge alternately. Therefore, I have repeatedly said that Bitcoin's 100,000 threshold won't be easily broken, even if it is still 10,000 away, it won't break easily now.
The significance of 100,000 is very strong. Before breaking 100,000, BTC and SOL are entering consolidation. This rhythm has been repeatedly mentioned and won't be elaborated on further. The Ethereum exchange rate is starting to reverse, old altcoins are surging, and new coins are continuously rising.
Currently, the altcoin season is in its early stages. Don't be fooled by the surging of old junk coins; this is just an appetizer. The Ethereum exchange rate has just begun to reverse, and ETH ETFs have just started to see net inflows. Next, we are waiting for a big surge in Ethereum. Although we haven't seen any positive news for ETH yet, I believe it will come soon, coinciding with Ethereum's significant rise.
During ETH's significant rise, altcoins and new coins will begin to stir. Everyone should grasp this rhythm well.
In the upcoming trend, which sectors will be speculated on?
In terms of risks, as long as the U.S. economy does not go into recession and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly triggering recession expectations from now until the end of Q1 next year, and there is no global liquidity crisis or other black swan events, the premise is still good. The positive aspect is that this trend post-election has not ended. Even if interest rate cuts pause next month, after the FASB, especially with Trump taking office on January 20, historically, risk markets usually perform well in the first hundred days of a new president. For cryptocurrencies, there will also be further easing from interest rate cuts, expectations of balance sheet reductions ending, Trump's commitments to cryptocurrencies, and speculation around cryptocurrency legislation.
So, looking at the overall situation, the current trend is far from over and still has potential. Furthermore, since this trend is still viable, if altcoins are to surge, ETH is extremely crucial. The recent rise in ETH is a good sign, so in the upcoming trend, which sectors are worth looking forward to?
I personally believe that meme coins are definitely worth looking forward to, and perhaps with a big rise in ETH, there will be speculation on meme coins on the ETH chain.
This will be calculated based on market speculation, exchange expectations, market makers, narratives, and past price trends.
After all, no project can keep rising indefinitely; there will always be a downturn to wash out positions, and then we will see whether there is speculation and whether it continues to rise.
The reason why Doge is so crazy is due to strong narrative speculation (this month because of Musk's mention, and also Pnut), it has entered major exchanges, liquidity is under strong pressure, external funds can be introduced, and it has experienced a washout before, which has led to the current situation. Other meme coins can model after this.
Similarly, public chains, AI (including AI + meme), and gaming sectors are also applicable.
