On December 2, XRP's market capitalization surpassed USDT and Solana, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market cap list, surpassing Pinduoduo to rise to 138th among global mainstream assets.
As XRP's price broke above $2, it successfully set a new high since April 2021. Just before XRP's rise, Ripple's CEO stated that the Trump administration brought new hope to the crypto industry, and XRP might welcome a turning point. Surprisingly for many investors, this turning point came swiftly and vigorously, with XRP's price increasing by 400% in the past month. However, with such a high increase, is there still an opportunity to buy XRP?
1. XRP, an old tree blooming
At the beginning of November this year, XRP's price lingered around $0.5. However, after Ripple's CEO stated on November 10 that Trump might bring a turning point for XRP, the price of XRP truly soared.
According to CoinMarketcap data, as of the time of writing, XRP has risen from approximately $0.5 to around $2.5, with an increase of up to 400% in the past month.
After hitting a peak of $1.966 during the bull market in April 2021, XRP has continuously declined since then, spanning 3.5 years, with the lowest drop reaching $0.287.
The surge in XRP's price has also led to a skyrocketing market cap, surpassing USDT and Solana with a market cap of nearly $140 billion, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market cap. It has even surpassed Pinduoduo and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group compared to traditional companies, rising to 136th among global mainstream assets.
Additionally, other data shows that XRP trading volume is active across major exchanges. On the South Korean exchange Upbit, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached $3.8 billion, which is 11 times its BTC trading volume, surpassing Binance's XRP spot trading volume. On Bithumb, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached $1.2 billion, accounting for 32% of its total trading volume.
Data from xrpscan also shows that in November, the number of active XRP accounts increased by 100%. Its on-chain indicators show signs of a positive recovery. The number of active accounts or unique senders on the XRP network increased from 15,592 on November 1 to 47,044 on November 16. The total number of active accounts in November doubled (increased by 100%) from around 12,000 to 25,000 this month. Similarly, the number of new accounts activated on the XRP ledger in November also increased significantly, indicating a large influx of new users into the network.
Regarding XRP's performance, Ripple's CEO seems to have anticipated it. He mentioned as early as the beginning of November that the Trump administration could bring new hope to the crypto industry, and XRP might welcome a turning point.
He explained that after the Trump administration took office, cryptocurrency regulations might change, resolving Ripple's long-standing legal disputes. He mentioned that since the SEC sued Ripple, XRP has faced many setbacks, but as unfavorable market factors diminish, the situation is changing, and XRP's future prospects are becoming more promising.
2. Multiple positive factors
1. Expectations for policy relaxation
The optimistic expectations for cryptocurrency-friendly policies since Trump's presidency continue to bring optimism to the crypto industry, and Ripple's CEO mentioned that Trump is expected to resolve Ripple's long-standing legal disputes.
Subsequently, reports revealed that Trump may meet with Ripple's CEO and other representatives from the crypto industry to discuss the formulation of US cryptocurrency policy.
Companies like Ripple are vying for seats on the cryptocurrency committee promised by Trump, seeking a voice in his planned US policy reforms.
The former CFTC chair also predicted that the SEC would drop the lawsuit against Ripple, which could signal a regulatory shift that might trigger a significant rise in XRP.
2. Expectations for XRP ETF launch and financial product listing
Ripple's CEO stated that the XRP ETF is destined to be launched.
Bloomberg ETF analysts pointed out that XRP and other altcoin ETFs may need to be approved by the end of 2025. The new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more cryptocurrency-friendly and could allow ETF products to include staking features.
Ripple is expected to receive approval from the New York Department of Financial Services to issue the stablecoin RLUSD, potentially launching on December 4. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public, making it a major player in the regulated digital finance market in New York and the broader stablecoin ecosystem. This move will also put Ripple in direct competition with other prominent US stablecoin issuers such as Circle, Paxos, and Gemini.
WisdomTree will launch an XRP ETP on European exchanges, which will be 100% backed by spot XRP. The assets will be stored in cold wallets and will adopt a dual custody model, managed by regulated custodians.
Additionally, WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. Meanwhile, 21Shares has also submitted an S-1 form to the SEC to apply for the launch of an XRP ETF, and Bitwise has submitted an XRP ETF application in Delaware.
Grayscale opens private placements of trust funds for qualified investors, including XRP and 16 other tokens. Robinhood's US platform has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP, and added PEPE.
3. Whales pushing up
On the South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, XRP trading volumes reached $3.8 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. Analysis firm Scopescan stated that South Korean investors may be the main driving force behind the rise in XRP prices.
At the beginning of November, 400 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown custody wallet, approximately worth $203 million.
At the end of September, Ripple whales purchased over 470 million XRP within 10 consecutive days.
However, despite the significant increase in XRP and various favorable factors, some analysts have raised warnings:
CryptoQuant analysts: XRP open interest has risen by 37%, which could lead to a decline. The last similar event resulted in a 17% drop.
Another analysis suggests that the current target price for XRP may be between $1.95 and $2.05. However, it is important to note that since November 16, the price and trading volume of XRP have shown an inverse correlation, indicating that XRP is undergoing a distribution phase, and market traders may be looking to sell.
Summary
As an established project, it is not easy for XRP to explode again. Recently, there have been various favorable factors surrounding it, whether in terms of policy regulations or expectations for the launch of financial products such as ETFs, which have raised investor expectations. However, there has traditionally been an investment tendency in the crypto circle to favor new projects over old ones. Whether XRP can continue to grow stronger and achieve brilliance remains to be seen over time.
