Looking at today's market from several major dimensions, the two markets traded 1.49 trillion yuan, and the volume is still shrinking. Last night I mentioned a data that the daily average of A-shares since the start of the market at the end of September is 1.98 trillion yuan. Comparing it with this number, you can see what the level of activity is today.
The median of the two markets is +1.25%. Most stocks are recovering. Some people may be surprised because several large market indexes fell today, but small and micro stocks performed very actively. I will post a few representative indexes to reflect the market style of the day.
The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.75% and the CSI 300 Index fell 0.46%, but on the contrary, the CSI 2000 rose 1.55% and micro-cap stocks rose 2.74%. This inexplicably reminded me of the recent weather. It was windy and cold in Beijing today, it was super cold, but in Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the south, the temperature was still over 20 degrees, so you can wear a T-shirt when going out.
The watershed of this market style was on October 14. As of that day, the Shanghai Composite 50 has fallen by 5.2% so far, while the micro-cap stock index has risen by 25.5% so far. I counted and it was exactly 30 trading days, so the gap between the two sides is 30%.
Therefore, different investors will have completely different experiences in this month or so. Those who hold blue-chip stocks will feel that it is difficult to make money and that making money is harder than eating shit. Those who hold small and micro stocks will feel that opportunities arise one after another and they can make money easily.
Will the market for small-ticket stocks continue to be so crazy? Today, when I was checking the data, I found an interesting phenomenon. The above indices, whether it is the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, or CSI 500, 1000, 2000, if the past 10 years are used as the statistical period, the current P/E historical valuations are all around the 50th percentile, with the highest being no more than 54% and the lowest no more than 47%, with little difference.
Therefore, it can be understood that the significant outperformance of small-cap stocks this time may be a valuation correction for the small-cap stocks that have been the main target of selling in the past one or two years. Now both sides have returned to near the starting point.
This may be different from the impression of many stock investors. In their impression, A-shares either support large stocks and kill small stocks, or support small stocks and kill large stocks. There is always an extreme style switch. But behind this extreme switch is another balance in the long time cycle, so I think that maybe it would come in handy to develop a concise style switching trend model.
I have thought of the formula. I will make a cumulative value of the rise and fall of the SSE 50 and CSI 2000 in the past 20 days. I will switch to the ETF of whichever one performs better. If the historical data of CSI 2000 is too short, I will switch to the CSI 300 and CSI 1000. I will test it later and tell you the result tomorrow.
……
1. Today I looked at the housing price data of major cities on TrendAnimal. In November, the national overall housing prices continued to fall. Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen and Tianjin stopped falling, but Shanghai is still falling. Chengdu had the best rebound performance in this round of stimulus, but I am not quite sure why it was Chengdu.
2. Israel's ambassador to the United States said that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. Today, the main contract of European container shipping plummeted by 16%, hitting the limit, and the performance of the shipping sector was also relatively bleak. The prices of gold and crude oil have also been impacted to varying degrees. Generally speaking, as long as the situation between Palestine and Israel eases, it is not good news for commodities, except for virtual currencies.
3. Li Bin said that NIO must not make any mistakes in achieving profitability in 2026. The background of this statement is that the company will lose 14.4 billion in 2022, 20.7 billion in 2023, and is expected to lose 15.5 billion in 2024. In the 15 years before Tesla achieved profitability, its cumulative losses were not as much as NIO's losses in the past three years.
4. Tencent repurchased 1.77 million shares on November 25 at a cost of HK$702 million. I found that in recent times, Tencent's repurchase amount has shrunk from HK$1 billion to HK$700 million, and the daily repurchase amount has decreased by 30%.
5. The concept of solid-state batteries continues to ferment. Institutions predict that the shipment volume of semi-solid-state batteries will be 7GWh this year, reaching 65GWh by 2030, and the shipment volume of all-solid-state batteries will reach 1GWh in 2028.
6. Stimulated by Japan's visa-free policy on weekends, the tourism and hotel sector led the gains today, but this is a one-time positive factor and the sentiment will easily subside after a few days of growth.
That's all. Today I also watched a closed-door meeting of Morgan Stanley Macroeconomics. The overall attitude towards China in the next few years is relatively negative. It is believed that China faces three major problems: population decline, global decoupling, deflation and debt trap, each of which is not easy to solve. It is expected that the nominal GDP growth rate in 2025-2026 will be only 3%, and the actual growth rate will be around 4%. It is optimistic about US and Japanese stocks, but not optimistic about emerging markets. China is a low-weight recommendation. It is predicted that Trump's tariffs on China will increase by 15% in 2025 and another 15% in 2026.
Is there anything else I want to think about? By the way, you also mentioned that the policy is expected to be moderate, and the investment may not necessarily focus on consumption, so deflation may not be resolved quickly.
Just take it as a listen. No matter whether it is domestic or foreign analysts, their opinions may not be accurate. It’s just that overseas institutions have no scruples and dare to speak out.
By the way, I'd like to add that I've asked someone to test it, and the initial feedback is that the results of the style switching are not very good. I'll look at the details later.