Project:
(An article analyzing the disruptive new DeFi player Fluid against Aave and Curve)
(Solana: From zero to a new high of $100 billion, the most perfect rebirth in crypto history)
(DeSci: How to challenge the existing scientific research system with on-chain memes?)
(OpenAI drives AI Agent frenzy, an article outlining the development trajectory of Crypto AI Agents)
Magic Eden Foundation: ME tokens will conduct TGE on December 10
DWF Labs launches a $20 million Meme fund to support Memecoin projects across multiple blockchains
The meme issuance platform jump.fun has launched on November 22, each new issued token immediately receives 6 meme liquidity loans for providing initial liquidity on Uniswap;
Data:
This week, Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $3.376 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflows of $2.054 billion
Global crypto CEX weekly visit data shows that Binance ranks first with 11.2 million weekly visits
Big names:
US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to push for a bill when she takes office next year, requiring the US to purchase 1 million Bitcoins, aiming to fill the strategic Bitcoin inventory proposed by the former president without increasing government debt, that is, selling part of the Federal Reserve's gold. Based on current market prices, this acquisition would cost about $90 billion; however, if the bill is passed, the required amount may increase.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet announces it will issue a total of 17.5 billion yen in ordinary bonds to purchase Bitcoin. The company currently holds 1,018.17 Bitcoins.
MicroStrategy announces the issuance of $2.6 billion in commercial paper to purchase Bitcoin
Top trader Eugene: The altcoin season may be about to start;
Macro:
Last week, after the CPI and PPI inflation indicators slightly exceeded expectations, Powell stated that the economy has not shown 'any signals' indicating that the Federal Reserve needs to rush to cut interest rates, allowing members to 'cautiously' pursue further adjustments.
Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: As long as inflation continues to move towards the 2% target, interest rates will be much lower than they are now in the next 12 to 18 months.
The Federal Reserve is showing hawkish signs, traders have reduced the probability of a rate cut in December to 61.9%, while the probability of maintaining current rates is 38.1%.
Next week's macro watchpoints
Tuesday:
Event: Several European Central Bank governors speak.
Wednesday:
Data: US initial jobless claims for the week, revised annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP for Q3, US October core PCE price index annual rate, US October core PCE price index month-on-month rate.
Event: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting.
Friday:
Event: The Bank of England releases its financial stability assessment report and minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Regulation:
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will resign on January 20
Market news: The FTX restructuring plan is expected to take effect in early January 2025
Sources: Ripple, a16z, and other companies are competing to join Trump's cryptocurrency advisory committee
Bitwise, Canary Capital, and several other institutions are competing to apply for XRP ETFs
(Powell's successor? What is the background of potential Treasury Secretary Kevin Warsh?)
Market:
Market sentiment has been completely ignited; technical analysis has only limited significance, as a mysterious force is pushing Bitcoin higher;
Will it stop at the 100,000 mark or continue to surge?
Middle Eastern tycoons may have revealed their hand early: whether their sovereign funds are really investing in Bitcoin is something we may only know later
The current conclusion that the chart can provide is: the boiling point for Bitcoin this time is around 105,000;
Whether Middle Eastern tycoons have made Bitcoin a strategic reserve, and whether they are the driving force behind this explosive rise, will be revealed at the Abu Dhabi Bitcoin summit on December 9 and 10.
In the last bull market, MicroStrategy, Grayscale, and Luna Foundation crazily bought Bitcoin, commonly referred to as the 'Three Musketeers of the Bull Market'. If Middle Eastern tycoons' sovereign funds enter the crypto market, many of the institutions that were impressive last round may become the small players among institutions. Because the sovereign funds of the tycoons have asset management scales exceeding $2 trillion, a 5% allocation is a terrifying existence.
After a phase peak near 100,000, Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase, and altcoins will see a rebound; if there is a pullback, a 15-20% drop would be considered normal;
Chart analysis: Personally, I expect the first pullback point to be around 79,000 and 78,000, with the second pullback point around 72,000;
If it drops to the second pullback point, the shakeout time will be relatively short; I personally lean towards a pullback near the first pullback position, which may be biased to the left, so refer cautiously.
Whether to reduce positions depends on cost, holding period, and target elasticity. Having reductions, having expected stop-loss points, and having limit orders are components of complete swing trading.
The pattern of Bitcoin rising while altcoins fall is one of the characteristics of chip distribution and indicates the escape of profits from the market.
Combining indicators like greed and fear RSI, large volatility may be approaching.
Altcoins:
SUI's explosive rise gives a chance for established L1s to share the benefits;
The ETF application has provided targeted expectations for specific assets;
The current head of the SEC will resign on January 20, benefiting previously defined tokens as securities;
Combined, this indicates sustained expectations for targets.
Oil refining and the metaverse have both seen a rebound.
On-chain cooling is evident, especially the rare scenario of a significant rise in Bitcoin while altcoins are retreating and meme coins are being sold off;
Expectation trading is inevitable, this round of bull market may have difficulty in a widespread rally;
meme :
TikTok's popularity continues: Chill series, KACY animation series go viral
Live factors are also quite interesting.
Currently, the CMC altcoin season index is 32
Squirrel leads with a 21x increase
Is your altcoin season here yet?
The market is increasingly leaning towards expectation trading rather than traditional rotation trends. Brother Shang hopes your altcoin season arrives with the frequency of a family visit! See red and see color, profits stretch like a rainbow!
#AltcoinSeason
